This oversimplifies some things and exaggerates others (quick thread, speaking as a longtime observer of German politics, not a migration or EU scholar):
1. Germany is not in sync with Hungary. Seehofer is anti-immigrant, but he is not Orban. Get back to me when Germany criminalizes NGOs aiding asylum-seekers. dw.com/en/hungarys-vi…
2. The AfD concern is real—and downplayed. Much like the Five Star Movement in Italy, its continued presence in politics, even if not in the legislature, says a lot about popular sentiment—essential in democracies and quasi-democracies and missing from this story.
3. There is a big difference between the end of the Schengen Area and the end of open borders for nonwhite people, as the NYT article alludes to in its discussion of screening processes.
4. Back to Hungary: Germany is not Hungary. I really cannot stress this enough. Get back to me when the German government says that Islam is a "civilizational problem". bloomberg.com/view/articles/…
5. Back to Germany: public opinion. The country is hugely divided on this. You might get a 30-point difference in the East vs. the West when asking about refugee issues. (Bavaria, Seehofer's stomping ground, is its own thing.)
Still, these poll numbers don't look like Hungary's. Here is a Hungarian poll from 2016. *insert general caveats about interpretability, etc.* pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016…
And here is a German poll done in five waves between 2015 and 2017. Islamophobia is real in Germany. Still, German numbers remain below EU averages on unfavorability ratings for Muslims and refugees. dw.com/en/new-study-s…
6. Germany border control policies represent a shift from Merkel's previous stances and are concerning in light of broader issues in European refugee policy—and they may send dangerous signals to other EU countries. Germany is also not Hungary. Merkel is also not Orban.
Coda: Why am I focusing so much on public opinion in EU countries when we know from the U.S. context that a small, vocal, hateful minority can drive immigration policy? Because public opinion *varies* across the EU, & immigration policy has varied along with it.
Coda to the coda: apologies for careless tweets not distinguishing b/n immigration policy and refugee policy. The attributed identities and perceived motivations of immigrants vs. refugees matters for how they are treated, both legally and informally. Das Ende.
