Public opinion on Brexit won’t change unless leaders change their position. Quick thread 1/
IMO Hard Brexit has 3 popular constituencies:
-UK doesn’t need EU
- EU will back down
- Let’s go with EUref majority 2/
-UK doesn’t need EU
- EU will back down
- Let’s go with EUref majority 2/
Team 1: UK doesn’t need a deal with EU. Don’t care about German car makers. Business will find a way, we’ll be fine. Some economic pain is worth it. (But there won’t really be any). 3/
Team 2: EU will back down - but only when convinced UK is serious. 4/
Team 1 & 2 aren’t persuaded by anyone saying “it’ll be bad”. Because they *know* UK is so strong, it’ll always come out well. Only *actual* economic harm will persuade them. Ie *after* Brexit. 5/
Team 3 - “let’s go with EUref winners” isn’t like Teams 1 & 2. They don’t “know” UK is so strong it doesn’t have to make big concessions. They agree because they think EUref winner’s position is reasonable. 6/
Corbyn & May’s “no-big-concessions-needed” is the crucial affirmation Teams 1 & 2 use to keep Team 3 onside. Without this rhetoric, Team 3 would weaken & switch, while Teams 1 & 2 would be even angrier and more worried. 7/
May talks abt Brexit as if it’s positive & low risk. Corbyn talks as if the only risks are a Tory Brexit (ie in Labour hands it’s low risk).
If either changes to “it’s now a very high risk scenario - let’s tread cautiously”, that’s a big step forward. 8/8
If either changes to “it’s now a very high risk scenario - let’s tread cautiously”, that’s a big step forward. 8/8
