I think prospects for #Brexit talks are looking very grim indeed
Best May can hope for - if Chequers agrees it - is that EU does not kill off the cherry picked single market/customs union straightaway
EU/Barniers pushing for either:
Full EEA plus customs union (although non-existent model that no one here thinks is tolerable)
Or an FTA and the Northern Ireland backstop
Full EEA plus customs union (although non-existent model that no one here thinks is tolerable)
Or an FTA and the Northern Ireland backstop
It’s that or no deal. Can British statecraft accept that? Is no deal more unacceptable for any British PM than allowing integrity of UK to be defined externally via backstop?
if May can't go back and can't go forward can the negotiations continue? No one serious beliefs EEA/CU is an option - including Barniers. Do they think the backstop can be swallowed, along side an FTA many members states fear?
Or is there a Tory Brexiter (Gove) pipe dream that can live with EEA/CU for now (even if it is toxic and most believe unworkable for more than a few years)?
Is it enough just berate the shambles in Downing Street, that’s not much of a strategy? As the last few years has shown, quality of EU decisions has been poor. Perhaps the question is now does British statecraft exist anymore?
Basically the summer looks like a cul de sac until hitting the wire in the autumn unless the EU concedes (as some on council side want) cherry picking is the landing zone with UK acknowledgement of ECJ, VAT, customs union (if not by name)
I think on both EU and British sides we’re about to see a catastrophic failure of politics and statecraft with huge implications for next decades in terms poisonous cross-Channel relations, let alone domestic implications of failing to digest Brexit vote
