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Cyrus Younessi @cyounessi1
, 11 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
0/ 61 markets and $16,000 of open interest so far within 12 hours of Augur's launch. In case you're wondering "what's the big deal," let's go over some of the markets that have been created so far.
1/ The most popular market was "Will France Defeat Belgium in the 2018 FIFA World Cup Semifinals?" The odds updated as goals were scored, and trustless sports betting will likely be a killer feature.
2/ Obviously, politics is a huge area of interest. "Will Donald J. Trump be elected AND inaugurated as President of the United States for the 2021-2025 presidential term?" will also likely be a huge market.
3/ Keep in mind that markets like this are currently *illegal* in the United States. The closest that exists is PredictIt, which limits to some hundreds of dollars per person.
4/ Will Augur's prediction markets operate outside the law? Great question! And one that will certainly put the notion of "censorship-resistance" to the test.
5/ My favorite use case: trustless derivatives markets! "Will Ethereum trade above 500$ in July 2018?" Any crypto trader today who's talked to an OTC desk such as Cumberland or Octagon knows the difficulties in creating/trading crypto derivatives.
6/ Centralized derivatives exchanges have spent countless years trying to drum up all the right licenses and regulations. Will Augur be able to sidestep that all in one go? Certainly something to think about.
7/ Don't forget, you can trade non-crypto derivatives as well. "Will the S&P 500 close above 2900 on July 31, 2018?" already exists as a market.
8/ Last one: how long will Tether insiders refuse the free money they can earn with the "Will Tether (USDT) be found to have been manipulated by end of 2018?" market? Insider information will start to become more widespread.
9/ The best site that exists for tracking markets that I've seen thus far is
Disclosure: my fund currently holds REP.
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