What has actually, concretely been achieved by Mr Juncker’s trip to Washington? I’ve got a Neville Chamberlain “peace in our time” vibe from the US-EU paper after the meeting with Trump. Thread. 1/
First things first. What has really changed? US tariffs on steel and aluminium stay and so do EU retaliatory tariffs. No tariffs on EU car industry for now – so basically we have got the status quo before the meeting. 2/
Except the EU has promised to buy US soy beans and US LNG gas. On soy beans, which apparently are already being bought by EU thanks to low price, how does the commission plan to order companies to buy US beans? 3/
On LNG. This needs LNG ports. The EU was already looking to build them to diversify gas suppliers. Truth is though US LNG exports more likely to go to Asia because they will pay higher prices. So what’s changed beyond the offer of a promise that won’t be kept? 4/
Will work together toward zero tariffs, zero non-tariff barriers, and zero subsidies on non-auto industrial goods reduce barriers, increase trade in services, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, medical products. Far, far easier said than done. 5/
Also risks fears from some EU politicians that the divisive TTIP could rise from the dead. 6/
Commission promised to make “trade fairer and more reciprocal”, which echoes Trump’s rhetoric and suggests EU trade may not be fair. A Trump win. 7/
EC said wd work w/ US in WTO vs China on issues like intellectual property. EU already wanted to do this but has now allied with pres it believes threatens “international rules based order” , despite already having Canada and Japan on side? Trump gains more here and for what? 8/
Nothing on climate change, despite guaranteeing environmental standards being hailed as a major benefit of EU trade negotiations. Nothing to reassure Ukraine and Eastern Europe over Russia or Tehran over the Iran nuclear deal. If anything, this will worry those countries. 9/
So what has commission actually won? Time. Brussels reached for its can and gave it a big boot down the road. Car industry will be relieved but again what has really changed and how long will ceasefire last? 10/
What has Trump won? A massive PR victory. His reward for taking a wrecking ball to norms of international trade (not to mention Iran, Paris, Nato etc). Reward won by promising nothing concrete in return beyond a vague promise to talk. Cold comfort 4 EU steel and aluminium. 11/
What has Commission lost? Credibility. The statement smacks of appeasement. And there are only a few hours before the president wakes up and reaches for Twitter. 12/
The triumphant, cloying selfies from giddy and starstruck EU officials, (overawed by independent, sovereign nation or drunk on dreams of a United States of Europe?) claim a victory that doesn’t really exist. Don’t be fooled. 12/
Case in point. Here is commission chief spokesman Maragaritis Schinas with Sarah Huckabee Sanders on day CNN was barred from attending the White House presser. 13/
Remember birds of a feather flock together. This sort of thing will enrage the likes of guy verhoftsadt in the European Parliament. Naive Europeans who believe the EU stands for values and principles will be disappointed 14/
It is a high political price to pay for precious little in return. Trump will gladly pocket it. We’ve seen this before when Trump was at Nato and when he visited the UK. 15/
The statement may have avoided a trade war in the short term, at a political cost and for nothing concrete on steel tariffs. 16/
It only delays the inevitable and strengthens Trump’s hand and rewards his bullying tactics, despite all the EU tough talk in recent weeks. By claiming trade “peace for our time”, Juncker and his aides have done a Neville Chamberlain. 17/
I am no trade expert but there are a lot of them on Twitter. If I am totally off mark please let me know.
But in the meantime @EU_Commission you might want to knock off the kisses and selfies with governments that separate kids from their families at borders.
ENDS>
But in the meantime @EU_Commission you might want to knock off the kisses and selfies with governments that separate kids from their families at borders.
ENDS>
Postscript: Some people arguing EU made meaningless commitments to prevent ,in short term car tariffs, and trade war. Now they can use talks to grind Trump down in process (a la Brexit) . I don't think Trump cares about process. But here's a poll - who won?
After some more consideration, here is my stab at it.
