Thread by @JamesCrisp6

Hail Twitter hivemind (trade division). Let me try out a thesis on you. EU gave greenlight for FTA talks w/ Australia & New Zealand today and this is good news for Brexit Britain. 1/
@leemakiyama @DuncanLumsden @PoppyCarnell @alanbeattie @Cecile_Toubeau @Trade_EU @AlexRPigman

EU trade policy was reinvigorated by Trump election/challenge. Since then deals made with Mexico, Canada and Japan who all stood to lose out vs Trump protectionism. 2/

Yes there were some japes and jokes about “Global Europe” but this wasn’t about Brexit-shaming. It was a move partly aimed at shoring up rules-based order under threat from you-know-who. 3/

Singapore should be sorted soon. Mercasur ongoing. Some moves to unblock suspended India talks. The more countries signing up to FTAs, the stronger that rules-based order is. 4/

This is definitely in Brexit Britain’s interest because you can’t have global Britain with dynamic trade policy if folk are playing silly buggers with the rules, encouraging others to do the same. 5/

Now Australia and New Zealand, both burned by Trump over TPP, being lined up for talks. Britain, of course wants its own FTAs with the old colonies after Brexit. 6/

Before UK joined EEC in 1973, Australia was the UK’s most significant trading partner. After UK effectively chose Europe over Oz, it focused on Asian markets. There is some bad feeling about this. 7/

Australia wants a FTA with EU and UK. This isn’t a case of either/or and Britain should back itself in competition with the EU for Australia/NZ trade. 8/

Britain can’t start trade negs until after Brexit 29 March 2019 but they can only come into effect end 2021 after transition over 9/

UK could use doors opened w/ countries by EU trade negotiators to get a good start on UK trade deals by cherry-picking bits from EU FTAs/ draft FTAs to build on 10/

This could help get some quick wins. But there is a snag, Some countries will want to secure concessions from UK to put pressure on EU. UK will have less heft outside of the EU and has nailed colours to making FTAs work, so more likely to give in 11/

EU starting work or sealing FTAs with other countries can give UK a helping hand by doing some groundwork and encouraging free trade in general 12/

Worth remembering UK still playing a full part in EU (on paper at least) and supports Eu trade policy. So they must think it in UK’s interest. 13/

Also clear that trade is the EU battleground with Trump – as shown by steel , Bombardier and Iran spats. Commission offer to US to deal with steel tariffs is – more trade. 14

But I am no trade guru. So twitter trade hivemind – am I talking sense and what is it that I am missing? 15/ ENDS
Also patching in @nick_gutteridge @SamuelMarcLowe @WeyandSabine @CitySamuel - please scroll up the thread.