One more paper to come in 10 minutes but first -- some thoughts on single-payer healthcare vs. a multi-payer system.
In my view, the first best utopian solution is a well-functioning multi-payer system. This is not the status quo and it may be impossible.
I think the first order benefit of a well-functioning multi-payer system over a single-payer system is innovation -- specifically, stuff like, "Adopting clinical decision support which will combine machine learning, causal methods and physician judgment...
to make optimal clinical judgments given all available information." My existing work and work in progress suggests the potential benefits are enormous (aeaweb.org/articles?id=10…). These benefits are likely to be achieved eventually in a single-payer system but more slowly,
and other innovations might not be achieved at all. There are good theoretical and empirical reasons to think that a multi-payer system will innovate faster: aeaweb.org/articles?id=10…. BUT
I think very few of these benefits are achieved in the current system because people can't perceive health plan quality so firms have no incentive to innovate in order to provide higher quality care. We don't get the benefits of multipayer but we still pay the costs.
Rather, I should have said we don't get this one major benefit -- there are other benefits we do get -- but no time for this now since one more paper to tweet!
