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Staedtler @Staedtler
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
I thought we'd got past all the squabbling over who wants what sort of Brexit.
What we're interested in is the future. The what will happen.
There'll be no withdrawal agreement because they'll never agree where to put the Irish border, in Ireland or the Irish Sea. Everywhere and nowhere.
There will never be a withdrawal agreement, and some point between now and next march Theresa May will resign. It's as good as fact.
When Theresa May resigns the Tories choose a new leader, knowing what their two options are now. Leave the European Union with no withdrawal agreement, causing economic crisis and breaking up of the United Kingdom. Or abandon the whole thing.
We're just waiting for Theresa May to resign. Which she will.
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More from @Staedtler see all

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We're not expecting a withdrawal agreement on October 18th, but another Euco is pencilled in for November 15th - just in case.
But the stupidity of English politics . . . We'd better go through this properly so we all understand what's what.
The "deal" we're talking about - but anyone using that word has no right to call themself a journalist - is a withdrawal agreement. Just that, and nothing more.
When they say a "deal" can be done, what they mean is complete a withdrawal agreement.
And that's the easy part, remember. Withdrawal agreement. Could have done that at any time in the last two years.
That's what Article 50 is for: Complete a withdrawal agreement
Read 19 tweets
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Theresa May is the global village idiot, and English political journalism would embarrass a three year old.
There is a problem with BBC news. The BBC has always been a bit inflated with this image of itself as the journal of national record.
And what they've done in Brexit is they've adopted government posture. To the extent they've almost become a propaganda outfit.
The BBC has chosen, quite politically, to disregard the European Union as a valid source of information.
And that has left the country entirely ignorant because it turns out the European Union has been providing valid information.
Read 14 tweets
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No. The quality that's missing from Corbyn, that Blair had infinite amounts of, is discipline.

Tony Blair got to the top of the Labour Party with the kind of discipline that Corbyn has never learnt.
Corbyn became Labour leader by accident. He never expected to get the job, and he never wanted it. It just came his way by crazy fortune, and he has staggered around ever since in a clueless muddle.
And it's that complete absence of discipline that most resembles Trump. They both came in the same way, as a clownish escapade, and neither of them has shown any sign of even the basic maturity for the job.
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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#Brexit thoughts this AM. The draft Withdrawal Agreement has a Northern Ireland sub-committee to the Joint Committee and sounds like there's been progress on an arbitration panel for the governance of the treaty = forum to discuss exit from a temporary customs arrangement? (1)
ANOTHER reminder of what @MichelBarnier said about the UK-wide customs idea way back in July. Note the problems he said had to be solved to make it work. europa.eu/rapid/press-re… (2)
And finally, I've now seen FIVE different dates for an extra-special Brexit summit in November. But I've been told that my trip to the German Christmas markets on 1/2 December should be safe! (3
Read 3 tweets
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Brexit is the backstop; the backstop is #Brexit.

After 3 days in Belfast, talking to all sides, here's what I've learned - on the business and the politics of this deal. And its viability.

1/Thread
First the business/technical aspects of how a backstop would work.

I talked to business lobby groups, Stephen Kelly from @ManufacturingNI fresh back from talks with Barnier. And bosses of big companies.

The are surprisingly sanguine. /2

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@ManufacturingNI If the backstop emerges as the British want (and that is still an 'if') it would look as follows:

- all-UK in a temporary customs Union
- Northern Ireland only in Single Market for goods, via devolution
- no checks GB-NI
- 'de-dramatised checks on regs NI-GB

/3
Read 26 tweets
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Some #Brexit notes on where it’s at
EU gearing up for Brexit endgame but May will not get a chance to discuss Chequers/future relationship with all other European leaders until a final summit in Nov (or even Dec)
Salzburg summit in 3 weeks - May will address all 28 but with no discussion 
Completely separately Macron is pushing for a full EU28 discussion on future of Europe
thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/m…
Read 30 tweets
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Some very breathless reporting/reading of @MichelBarnier remarks y'day. So what is happening on #Brexit? Some thoughts on talking with both sides. 1/Thread
@MichelBarnier First Barnier. To be clear, it was absolutely orthodox. We respect UK red lines, but within those limits will give UK broadest ever FTA and Association Agreement. It's EXACTLY what he said on Aug 2 OpEd: "unprecedented in scope and depth." /2

ec.europa.eu/commission/new…
@MichelBarnier So why all the huffing and puffing, the sudden optimism about EU willingness and desire to cut a deal?

Well first, it's important to focus on what that 'deal' is in Oct/Nov - it's the withdrawal agreement.

Money. Citizens. Northern Ireland backstop. NOT Chequers. /2
Read 18 tweets
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Addressing @FinancialTimes Brexit and Beyond Conference outlining Irish government perspective on #Brexit "Cross border trade represents the first export market for 73% for Northern Ireland's SME's. More than 7,000 business trade across the border supporting 160,000 jobs."
"EU membership and the Good Friday Agreement have brought immeasurable benefits to the people of Ireland, North and South and help normalise relationships between the people across the island of Ireland. We want to ensure this is not impeded by #brexit."
"We welcomed the publication of the UK proposals last week on the Customs aspects of the withdrawal agreement. It is clear that further work is still required in particular on the regulatory alignment aspect in order to make progress needed on the backstop before EU Council."
Read 7 tweets
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THREAD: Disagreement on the ECJ's role remains one of the biggest hurdles in #Brexit talks. This is how to vault it.
instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/d…
There will be fun graphics and a moody photo of me in a carefully chosen shirt along the way. Stay with me.
Basics: UK and EU need a dispute resolution mechanism to sort disagreements about the meaning and implementation of the Brexit deal(s).
Read 26 tweets

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