Thread by @Helenreflects

Would a #PeoplesVote lead to social unrest? @johnmcdonnellMP claims that it will, but on what is this based?

theguardian.com/politics/2018/…

Let's look at some things that DO cause social unrest according to research 1/

Probably the most comprehensive study on social unrest in Europe, studying the period 1919-2008 this paper finds a link between austerity and social unrest. 2/

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…

"Using a panel data for 24 European countries covering the period 1919 to 2008, we show a clear link between the magnitude of expenditure cut-backs and increases social unrest. With every additional percentage point of GDP in spending cuts, the risk of unrest increases" 3/

So, austerity causes social unrest. It is thus not surprising that UKIP support and the support for Leave was correlated with bad effects of austerity in particular wards. It's the austerity that caused social unrest, which caused the Referendum outcome 4/ blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpol…

What else would cause social unrest... let's see food prices. People don't like rising food prices. Pity they're bound to increase for any Brexit outcome projected. But hey, a #PeoplesVote just *might* create social unrest. We don't know 5/
academic.oup.com/ajae/article-a…

Or a state that is totally unable to provide basic services, that sure causes social unrest, as this paper looking at Greece and Ireland in early 2000s shows. Why was there social unrest in Ireland but not Greece? 6/
journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.117…

People don't like it if the state doesn't take care of them.
Which is bound to happen under many Brexit scenarios (not only no deal but also those that limit free movement of people). Without care workers, nurses, etc. the NHS will collapse, and there will be social unrest 7/

But hey let's carry on with Brexit regardless in spite of it being sure to
*raise food prices
*cause more austerity
*limit state services
Which all as a matter of proven fact DO cause social unrest.
Because a #PeoplesVote just might cause such unrest, right? 8/

Now maybe a #PeoplesVote would cause social unrest because UKIP etc would stoke up the people. But since when is Labour considering the stoking up of anti-democratic forces as a way to influence our decision making?
Are we ruled by mobs or by Russia? /ends