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Glen Peters @Peters_Glen
, 13 tweets, 6 min read Read on Twitter
What is the role of oil in a 2°C world?

THREAD on my presentation at #ONS2018 #CentreCourt (Monday), where I (try to) explain why there is potentially space for some new oil & what constrains the amount 1/

slideshare.net/GlenPeters_CIC…
It is important to remember, that every molecule of CO₂ that enters the atmosphere causes the temperature to increase. To stop temperature rising, either stop emitting CO₂ or, if you must, take out what you put in. 2/
Because it is unlikely we can get to zero emissions in 10-20 years (1.5°C) or 30-40 years (2°C), we have to remove CO₂ from the atmosphere. The more removed, the less radical the short-term reductions. Radical mitigation AND CO₂ removal is key. 3/
Carbon budgets are not that useful at the policy level (rdcu.be/0Tiv, rdcu.be/0TiG), so we instead use emission scenarios to explore future uncertainties (top). For this presentation, it is useful to group scenarios to focus on stylised pathways (bottom) 4/
In optimal scenarios, oil demand peaks in about 2020's for a little under 2°C (blue), 2030 for a little over 2°C (green), 2040 for ~2.5°C (yellow), etc, after which there is a gradual decline to 2100. All is stubborn. 5/
If we empty all existing oil fields (black), then there is not enough to meet demand, even to stay below 2°C. There is a "supply gap", but it's exact size will depend on lots of supply, demand, & socioeconomic energy system assumptions. 6/
Why does oil demand remain rather stubborn? Rule of thumb: ~25% of oil is for private cars, ~25% freight, ~25% shipping / aviation, ~25% petrochemicals. Even if electric vehicles take over the world tomorrow, oil demand will still persist. 7/
To get an idea of how challanging it is to reduce emissions in frieght, aviation, shipping, and other hard-to-mitigate sectors, then have a read of this recent review. Long distance transport is about 5% of global emissions. science.sciencemag.org/content/360/63… 8/
All this is based on "optimal" scenarios. To get from a reference to 2°C requires huge decreases in energy use & coal, plus rapid growth in CCS, bioenergy, & non-fossil energy. Miss any of these "building blocks", the less oil... 9/
More info... cicero.oslo.no/en/posts/news/…
Worth noting that there are many different ways to get to 2°C, different models & socioeconomic assumptions will lead to different pathways. These risks leads to more or less oil. Risks abound, which is why we use scenarios in the first place... /10
Yes, there is potentially place for new oil in a 2°C world:
* There is much less coal, oil, gas in a 2°C world than in 3°C (BAU is over)
* New oil requires the death of coal, & emergence of renewables, CCS, EVs, CO₂ removal, ...
* Don't meet those criteria, then less oil /11
What can the oil industry do?
* Support & push broad decarbonisation, everyone needs to do their part
* Focus on high-value niche opportunities
* Utilise the skill set, which is far beyond petroleum engineering
* Read the great thread by @JigarShahDC /12
Important to remember nothing is black & white, the future of oil is a complex & nuanced discussion. Happy for comments on the presentation & discussion. 13/end
slideshare.net/GlenPeters_CIC…
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THREAD (The Global Status of CCS)

CCS is moving, but moving way too slowly for for 1.5°C or 2°C.

Even if you are not a CCS fan, worth checking the report by @GlobalCCS to get an update on the current status of CCS around the world.

#COP24 globalccsinstitute.com/resources/glob…
There currently exists ~40MtCO₂ per year capture *capacity* (0.1% global emissions), the vast majority for Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR). It is harder to know how much of CO₂ is stored (not commonly reported or verified), but the estimate here is 200MtCO₂ (cumulatively).
Of the 230MtCO₂ cumulative storage, the vast majority is in the US and for enhanced oil recovery. Norway is the only country (substantially) sequestering CO₂ specifically for storage purposes, where carbon pricing makes it beneficial to store the CO₂. Policy is important!
Read 9 tweets
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THREAD (Global Fossil CO₂ Emissions)

Global fossil CO₂ emissions are on track to rise more than 2% in 2018 (2.7%, range 1.8% to 3.7%). Emissions rose 1.6% in 2017 (leap-year adjusted) after a temporary slowdown from 2014 to 2016.

#CarbonBudget #COP24 globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/i…
Countries that need to slowdown:
* China, up 4.7% [2.0–7.4%]
* India, up 6.3% [4.3–8.3%]
* Others (largely developing), up 1.8% [0.5–3.0%]

Countries that need faster reductions:
* USA, up 2.5% [0.5–4.5%]
* EU, down 0.7% [-2.6–1.3%]

#CarbonBudget #COP24 globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/i…
There is a broad spread in CO₂ emissions per capita, but for a chance of 1.5°C or 2°C, countries with low per capita emissions also have to reduce emissions.

Yes, developed countries have to do more, but they can’t do it alone!

#CarbonBudget #COP24 globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/i…
Read 10 tweets
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Does model bias effect outcomes of the #IPCC 1.5°C emission scenarios #SR15?

The scenario database is over represented by some model frameworks. Taking statistics will over represent some models (eg, REMIND, AIM), discount others (eg @IEA), & not all models included!

THREAD 1/
The bias varies by scenario category, here for 1.5°C scenarios with "no or low overshoot" as highlighted in #SR15. Should REMIND & POLES get more weight then GCAM or MERGE?
2/
I often take medians of scenarios to simplify communication, trying to reveal the "key characteristics" of 1.5°C (trying to find robust messages). The scenario community does not like this approach
3/
Read 8 tweets

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People have been screaming about the exit of HSBC and UBS as sign of
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