Thread by @jedshug

Why would Mueller allow Trump to give written answers on Russian conspiracy questions, but not obstruction?
It makes a ton of sense to me. Thread...
nytimes.com/2018/09/04/us/…

2/ A court battle over a subpoena for a live interview will take a ton of time and political capital, and with Kavanaugh on the bench, Mueller might lose. U.S. v. Nixon was limited to concrete evidence (the Tapes). Five or more Justices could rule written answers are sufficient.

3/ And at this stage, it's pretty clear that Mueller has a lot of information about obstruction already. Trump already confessed to obstruction/corrupt intent w/ Lester Holt on NBC and in the Oval Office to Kislyak and Lavrov... shugerblog.com/2017/06/07/obs…

4/ His lawyers acknowledged obstruction/witness tampering with Don Jr. McGahn gave Mueller 30 hours of interviews.
Mueller has the May '17 draft letter for firing Comey as evidence.
If all of this isn't persuasive, what's a live interview going to add? slate.com/news-and-polit…

5/ My guess is that Mueller has sufficient information on obstruction. He isn't going to indict Trump, and certainly not just on obstruction. The GOP hasn't budged on flagrant obstruction.
Mueller seems focused on conspiracy. That's his assignment. And the whole case turns on it.

6/ Based on others' reporting and hints (@emptywheel), Mueller seems to have some core facts of criminal conspiracy, and he's ready to ask some questions about those facts. Trump doesn't know what Mueller knows, so he's in a bind, whether answers are written or live...

7/ Did Trump direct Flynn to contact Russians in Dec. 2016? @emptywheel has strongly hinted yes, Mueller knows, and that it was more than just a Logan Act violation, but a deeper criminal conspiracy. Remember: Flynn is cooperating, and he might have hard evidence...

8/ Did Trump know in advance about Trump Tower meeting and Russian dirt? Circumstantial evidence says, "Obviously." But Mueller probably has Don Jr's actual phone records, too.
How is Trump going to answer that one?
See my piece on this conspiracy case: slate.com/news-and-polit…

9/ What else does Mueller already have from Flynn, Gates (the RNC platform change), foreign recorded conversations, George Nader, Cohen, Roger Stone's contacts...?
Mueller might be ready for some Russia answers.
And it's time for Trump to tell the truth, take the 5th, or lie.

10/ This is my speculation, but I think it's a sign that Mueller sees the limited necessity of obstruction answers, but even more importantly, that he has made so much headway on Russian conspiracy, he wants answers from Trump sooner than later.
I take that as GREAT news. DONE.

11/ Not done... people are asking what the Trump/Flynn/Russia criminal conspiracy might be. It might have something to do with quid pro quo corruption: politico.com/story/2017/12/…