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Election Maps UK @ElectionMapsUK
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I've been playing around with the proposed new seat boundaries on @ElectCalculus and found something quite shocking:

- CON need a ~2pt lead over LAB for a majority

- LAB need a ~11pt lead over CON for a majority

🤔
Before everyone accuses the Tories of cheating, the boundaries are drawn up by the boundary commission (an independent body). The new proposals actually make constituency population sizes fairer.
The thing you need to blame is our FPTP voting system. LAB vote share is much more concentrated then CON vote share so it all builds up in a few inner-city seats.
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Which election system would you prefer to be used in UK General Elections?

(Re-doing to add another option)
Ironically this poll has to be carried out using FPTP 😂
Videos explaining MMP and STV if you're unfamiliar:

MMP:
STV:
Read 3 tweets
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If 2017 election result was repeated on the new election boundaries:

CON: 308
LAB: 232
LDM: 7
SNP: 33
GRN: 1
DUP: 10
SF: 7
PLC: 2

CON Majority of 16 (23 excluding SF).
Via Rawlings & Thrasher.
How parties would be affected (based on % of seats won).

SYSTEM BENEFITS:

CON (+2.4%)
DUP (+0.2%)
SF (+0.2%)
SNP (+0.1%)
GRN (+0.0%)

SYSTEM HARMS

LAB (-1.6%)
LDM (-0.6%)
PLC (-0.3%)
IND (-0.2%)
The boundaries are drawn up by the boundary commission (an independent body). The new proposals actually make constituency population sizes fairer.

If you don't like the look of these results, I suggest you join @MakeVotesMatter, you should blame FPTP not the Tories.
Read 3 tweets
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Need an election fix? The Swedish G.E is happening today, and it looks very interesting.

The centre-left/left coalition (S+V+MP) are polling at ~40%.

The centre/centre-right coalition (M+C+L+KD) are polling at ~39%.

And the right-wing SD party are polling at ~18%.

#val2018
S = Social Democratic, C-Left, ~25% (-6)
V = Left, Left, ~10% (+4)
MP = Greens, C-Left, ~6% (-1)

M = Moderate, C-Right, ~17% (-6)
C = Centre, Centre, ~9% (+3)
L = Liberals, C-Right, ~6% (+1)
KD =Christian Democrats, C-Right, ~6% (+1)

SD = Sweden Democrats, Right, ~18% (+5)
First percentage is polling, change is with 2014 election.
Read 3 tweets

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This case stinks. Be sure to scroll up on below thread to see additional info. This is the attorney for Cristhian Bahena Rivera, who allegedly murdered Mollie Tibbetts.
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#New PA cong. map increases D chance of winning the House majority by 4%. They only need a 6.8% generic ballot margin now (down from 7.7) to be favored.

Diff. will be closer to 10% in Nov when uncertainty from polls is ⬇️. Redraw is a very big deal.

One major reason the new PA map is such a big gain for Democrats is that it solidifies, not just tips, PA districts in Philly burbs. Also creates one additional vulnerable R district. (Easily seen in this map made by @JMilesColeman)
My forecasting model will have new PA map in the near future. This is not just a simple switch; it’s a coding redesign, restructuring of input, & drawing new geographic files. Takes a while (for me, a student).

In the meantime, just add 3-4% to the model: bit.ly/2018_house
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