1/ How can a trade negotiating team gauge how sensitive for the other side an issue is politically when negotiating with an authoritarian society?
This question from David touches on the intersection of foreign policy and trade and deserves a thread 👇🏽
This question from David touches on the intersection of foreign policy and trade and deserves a thread 👇🏽
2/ Background: This question arises from my recent blog post on calculating red lines in a trade negotiation.
explaintrade.com/blogs/2018/9/8…
explaintrade.com/blogs/2018/9/8…
3/ While democracies and more open societies are more frequently seen on both sides of a trade negotiating table, they do not have a monopoly.
This means a negotiating team will at times find themselves speaking with someone whose local newspapers do not public critique.
This means a negotiating team will at times find themselves speaking with someone whose local newspapers do not public critique.
4/ Just because a country doesn't allow or severely limits formal criticism or opposition doesn't mean it's not sensitive to domestic interests.
Few authoritarian regimes are so secure they can consistently or brazenly ignore major interests groups at home.
Few authoritarian regimes are so secure they can consistently or brazenly ignore major interests groups at home.
5/ Even a regime run by a dictator generally remains in place because of the cooperation of a coalition of powerful groups.
These groups could be oligarchal, military, religious, ethnic, tribal or regional. Regardless, they rely on their ongoing support to stay in power.
These groups could be oligarchal, military, religious, ethnic, tribal or regional. Regardless, they rely on their ongoing support to stay in power.
6/ Trade touches on so many elements of life in a modern society that these powerful groups will likely have views on the direction of a negotiation.
Perhaps strong views. Opposing these views introduces a political cost to the authoritarian and impacts their calculus.
Perhaps strong views. Opposing these views introduces a political cost to the authoritarian and impacts their calculus.
7/ This leaves trade negotiators in a quandary because while strong views over policy exist and are important, they cannot always be found on the front page of newspapers or on political debate shows.
8/ That's where Diplomats come in.
A key role of a diplomatic officer in any country to which they are posted is to help his government better understand the inner workings, political forces and hidden currents of the country of their accreditation.
A key role of a diplomatic officer in any country to which they are posted is to help his government better understand the inner workings, political forces and hidden currents of the country of their accreditation.
9/ By living in a society, consuming its media, speaking to local leaders, experts, academics and ordinary folk, diplomats work to fill in the gaps for their governments back home.
It is they, supported by trained analysts in capital, who can shed light on the redness of lines.
It is they, supported by trained analysts in capital, who can shed light on the redness of lines.
10/ This is true of any society, not just an authoritarian one. A diplomatic network helps governments see beyond the headlines and really get a feel for boot leather politics in other states.
11/ In theory, covert agencies can play a trade role too.
There are vaguely attributed anecdotes floating around the trade world of people who sat down at a negotiating table only to see a copy of their own supposedly secret brief sitting in their opposite number's documents.
There are vaguely attributed anecdotes floating around the trade world of people who sat down at a negotiating table only to see a copy of their own supposedly secret brief sitting in their opposite number's documents.
11/ For the record, I have never seen this and firmly believe the intelligence services of anyone I negotiated with have better things to do than steal my doodles or put together a dossier on me titled, "Idiot, Mostly Harmless."
Prove me wrong, Deep State Cucks!
Prove me wrong, Deep State Cucks!
12/ What happens when a diplomatic network doesn't provide answers?
In this case, more depends on the negotiator reading the other delegation on the various issues. What makes them look up? When do they start scribbling notes? When do seniors come in?
In this case, more depends on the negotiator reading the other delegation on the various issues. What makes them look up? When do they start scribbling notes? When do seniors come in?
13/ I hope this thread answered at least partially David's question (and hopefully was interesting to the rest of you as well).
Happy trading!
Happy trading!
