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Peter Ungphakorn @CoppetainPU
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Sigh.

FAILING to impose non-tariff barriers could actually be illegal under WTO rules. When will this myth be put to bed?

1/3
Time to dig this out again.

Have @Econs4FreeTrade and @Jacob_Rees_Mogg actually read the @uk_tpo piece in this thread?



2/3
A link to that article is in this tweet.

The "Economists for Free Trade" paper isn't on their website yet, so we won't know if this 👇🏾 is addressed. However their other publications make the same claim without acknowledging the criticism



3/3
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More from @CoppetainPU see all

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Some Brexiters (by no means all) apparently see “no deal” increasingly as a “viable” option, particularly no deal on March 29.

Those who argue in favour, need to address in detail the weight of evidence that it would be seriously harmful for many.

huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/increasi…

1/17
Remember:

1. Arguing against “no deal” is not arguing against Brexit. (It’s sad that this has to be repeated.)

2. “No deal” on March 29, is far worse than a gradual transition to “no deal” over a number of years. And it can’t be a “managed no deal” unless there’s a deal.

2/17
3. Even “no deal” on March 29 won’t mean the end of the world (a phrase used repeatedly), but for many it could mean the end of their present livelihoods.

If it’s a “viable” option, define “viable”.

And for whom?

3/17
Read 20 tweets
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The "transitional arrangement" @bbaschuk refers to is, for now, the proposed Withdrawal Agreement (WA). It has provisions (129.1) specifically dealing with issues such as the WTO's Government Procurement Agreement (GPA)

What needs to be sorted out?

1/10

gov.uk/government/pub…
With the WA, the time to sort out the GPA is extended under the WA's transition period. Without the WA and no consensus in the WTO's Government Procurement Committee (the GPA signatories), UK preferential access is lost.

2/10

Source (paywalled): ….agribusinessintelligence.informa.com/PL218600/New-s… Screenshot of paragraphs in the linked paywalled article quoting a WTO news story in which the UK and EU say the UK will be treated as an EU member until the end of the transition, and Article 129.1 plus footnote of the draft Withdrawal Agreement
The problem isn't the UK's offer (already accepted in principle) but legalese & procedure in the committee's draft decision

@bbaschuk shared a leaked US amendment to the EU's draft committee decision.

It is revealing. This first part is unamended.

3/10

drive.google.com/file/d/1pW-3P0… Screenshot of the top of page 2 of the US proposed draft decision, down to
Read 10 tweets
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This is nonsense.

No one does deals to "escape" the WTO. They remain WTO members, bound by the agreements they made in the WTO.

They get some better terms through free trade deals, but the WTO agreements remain the shell. Those free trade agreements reside within the WTO shell
One of the needs of Brexit (whatever the outcome) is to understand the implications for trade, including the WTO and its agreements.

It doesn't help if influential people like @mikegalsworthy & @Scientists4EU can't be bothered to find out what the WTO really is.

Pointers

1/3
Here's somewhere to start: tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2017/12/17/wto…

2/3
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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My verdict on the Economists for Free Trade Report - A World Trade Deal: The Complete Guide.

Not credible.

If you want to push me I can go further.

Not remotely credible.

Not remotely a complete guide either.

Nonetheless, let's have a little fun. 1/

economistsforfreetrade.com/wp-content/upl…
Let's start with the name. A World Trade Deal. Impressive sounding. But it actually means no deal, as we simply accept WTO rules. 2/
Now remember, this is the 'Complete Guide'. That sadly also turns out not to be quite true. For example Chequers "may" be illegal under WTO rules. I'd expect a little more detail if this really was the complete guide 3/
Read 22 tweets
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According to Economists for Free Trade's press release, their report "concludes that the best way of delivering a “Clean Brexit” is to leave under a World Trade Deal covered by WTO rules."

There is no such thing as a World Trade Deal.
Press release also repeats previous erroneous claims that UK's non-EU trading partners already trade with it "under WTO rules", ignoring the fact that all of them have some kind of trade arrangement. There isn't anywhere in the world that trades with the UK under pure WTO rules.
More worryingly, if the press release accurately represents the report's mathematics, Economists for Free Trade need to learn the difference between amounts and rates of change. A 1% increase in £300bn of exports is a whole lot more than 10% increase in £22bn of exports.
Read 20 tweets
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I am not going to disect the Economists for Free Trade‘s work. Quite frankly it‘s too bad for that. But for the amusement of @tonylgardner here are the strangest parts of the press release (economistsforfreetrade.com/News/rees-mogg…)
@tonylgardner “A world trade deal under WTO rules would boost the UK’s trade with the rest of the world including Europe” (yes, it does say that)
@tonylgardner “if the EU insisted on slapping WTO tariffs on British exports and Britain responded in kind, ” (yes, it does use if. It should say “as the EU would be obligated to do under WTO law”)
Read 6 tweets
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001/ [article content in this tweet series 001-180 reproduced with permission from Martin Howe QC of Lawyers for Britain @lawyers4britain]
#quote "Leaving the EU on WTO terms: pulling down the barriers to world trade
Introduction: why prices will FALL after Brexit, not rise" /002
002/ #quote "Over the past couple of weeks, the media have been full of lurid scare stories about what will happen if the UK leaves the EU on WTO terms, because negotiations with the EU do not result in a withdrawal agreement." /003
#tariffs #NoDeal #Brexit #WTO #ProjectFear #shortages #food #medicines
003/ #quote "One of the most ridiculous and UNJUSTIFIED of these absurd scare stories is that it will lead to higher prices, and even shortages, of foods and medicines." /004
Read 180 tweets
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Does the UK hold all the cards? (Thread)
We certainly were told we hold all the cards.
Yet when the EU proposed a fall-back position which went some way to solving our problems, people lost their minds, as if the UK has no power in this.
Read 33 tweets
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David Davis up in the Commons for Brexit questions parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/ae…
"We made important progress..." Labour benches start laughing.
(BTW will be commenting using these threaded tweets, so mute the first one now if you want to avoid an unspeakable load of hogwash)
Read 89 tweets

Trending hashtags

#beef #NoDeal #drugs #agreements #oranges #PoshTrump #criminal #pay #NAFTA #Tesco #NeverTrump #schedules #technology #drug #Brexit #ChequersPlan #report #GATT #external #SingleMarket #FDA #SelectCommittee #politicslive #amendment #freely

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