Ahead of our @UKandEU event on transition (with associated report) tomorrow, some thoughts on this neglected part of Brexit:
ukandeu.ac.uk/event/brexit-t…
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ukandeu.ac.uk/event/brexit-t…
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In all the hubbub about the WA and the future relationship, it's easy to neglect the bit in-between
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Tomorrow's event aims to help rectify this, not least because it's got various problems that need to be discussed and debated
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I'd argue that the 'membership minus/Full Monty' (h/t @piris_jc) model provisionally accepted by the UK and EU in the WA is the least-worst option
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It means no double transition for the UK, a more comprehensive level of reliability for citizens and businesses, plus sets out a base from which to negotiate the future relationship
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However, it comes with challenges/problems too
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I've talked before about the extension problems here (blogs.surrey.ac.uk/politics/2018/…) but as matters stand now, we might have an even-less manageable cliff-edge at end 2020 than we have in March 2019
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But there are also issues around balancing transition with the parallel negotiations on the future relationship and on third-state agts (as @DavidHenigUK @hhesterm will discuss)
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Plus it doesn't even fully resolve the interim arrangements for Ireland/Northern Ireland (as @MaryCMurphy is going to explore tomorrow)
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Finally, there's a real Q of democracy here. How legitimate is it for UK to have all of membership, w/o voting or full representation rights?
That's only partly balanced by whether it's legitimate for non-EU member to have such rights, but not really
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That's only partly balanced by whether it's legitimate for non-EU member to have such rights, but not really
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Clearly, one could argue this away as a passing issue, but if extension does come back as a live issue (as I think it must), then it becomes ever more of a problem, for all involved
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Only legally-compliant way through this that I can see would be a WA with a post-dated withdrawal of UK from EU (at end 2020), so it remains a full member until then.
But looks almost impossible to consider in current political climate (and raises Qs of respecting #EUref)
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But looks almost impossible to consider in current political climate (and raises Qs of respecting #EUref)
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So, no real answers, but I think it's important to raise the Qs
More tomorrow on the #BrexitTransition hashtag
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More tomorrow on the #BrexitTransition hashtag
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(and yes, you'll probably have the opportunity to enjoy this masterpiece again)
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