1.Lots of surprise in UK media that EU member states were not more accommodating in the Brexit negotiations in Salzburg. Much less on continent, it’s what the EU-27 has been saying all along.
But importantly, it’s also what the EU public supports. Here’s the evidence:
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But importantly, it’s also what the EU public supports. Here’s the evidence:
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2. Some context: This data is from an online-survey of 9423 EU-27 citizens run by @daliaresearch in June 2018 (I designed the questionnaire, it’s from a larger research project I am conducting on EU-27 responses to Brexit).
3.Asking EU-27 Europeans about how the EU should approach them, 44% say that the EU should take a hard or very hard line.
4. There is some variation among countries, but the general pattern is one where a hard stance is supported.
5.This also applies when I show them a map with national Brexit negotiation positions and ask them how they evaluate their government’s position. A clear majority (55%) agree with those positions.
Overall, Barnier, EU-27 governments, and the EU-27 public largely seem to agree.
Overall, Barnier, EU-27 governments, and the EU-27 public largely seem to agree.
6.Moreover, those who are most interested in Brexit take a much less compromising stance…
7.…and even among Eurosceptics, almost one third support a (very) hard line. Among Europhiles, more than half take such a non-accommodating stance.
8.Finally, in related research with @IgnacioJurado and @sandraleon_ , we find that voters are surprisingly well aware of the trade-offs b/w minimizing the economic cost of Brexit and the risk of creating a domino effect that are inherent in the Brexit negotiations.
8a. Here's the link to the paper, if you want to know more:
stefaniewalter.de/app/download/8…
stefaniewalter.de/app/download/8…
9.What does this mean for the Brexit negotiations?
May’s appeal to the EU member states failed not least because both the EU-27 governments AND their publics are unwilling to accommodate the UK. These opinions have been quite stable over the past year. Unlikely to soften quickly
May’s appeal to the EU member states failed not least because both the EU-27 governments AND their publics are unwilling to accommodate the UK. These opinions have been quite stable over the past year. Unlikely to soften quickly
10. Is there a silver lining for the UK?
A majority of EU-27 voters seem oblivious that Brexit has the potential to cause serious harm on their economies as well. As this consequence of a hard negotiation line sinks in, there is a chance that they might soften their stance
/End
A majority of EU-27 voters seem oblivious that Brexit has the potential to cause serious harm on their economies as well. As this consequence of a hard negotiation line sinks in, there is a chance that they might soften their stance
/End
