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tony nog #FBPE @tony_nog
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
1) Great article on why #Brexit is insoluble
We can rail about respecting the vote, the EU being stubborn,May being incompetent etc all day long. The fact is it cannot be negotiated successfully, and anyone who believes otherwise is mistaken
#Lab18

blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/09…
2) reasons are very simple, and always have been. The deal that was promised & any feasible deal are so far apart as to be unrecognisable

Either Brexit will be so painful that it will destroy the party who implements or so meaningless that it would be embarrassing to implement
3) half the country do not want Brexit, the other half (apart from the hardcore) voted for the pain free, cake & eat it easy brexit that was promised.

There is *no* feasible Brexit that would gain a majority in the UK & non possible within the EU & UKs red lines
4) Brexit can't be solved
Rise of far right, loss of Labour northern seats, respecting the vote, disillusionment with politics, cries of "betrayal"
They don't change the fact that Brexit can't be solved
End/
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More from @tony_nog see all

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1) 2 observations about David Davis comments here
1stly the really pathetic point about the no deal #Brexit leaders is that even they don't believe in no deal, its still basically the worst bluff in history, believing 27 nations will fold on a cakeism deal before we do
2) if you believe in "no deal" & WTO is "liberating" then why talk about using it as leverage to get that "better" #brexit deal?
It's the same, tired, "they need us more..." line with added idiocy (hint: if you're going to bluff, don't tell everyone)

3) secondly, why does Davis still get airtime? He's been utterly wrong on every single aspect of #Brexit.

He thought we could strike individual trade deals with Germany. He also promised "exact same benefits". He attended 4 hours of negotiations. In all honesty, he's an idiot
Read 3 tweets
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Thoughts on #uncivilwar #Brexit
1) I thought it was good on the whole. Lots of details not covered, focused a lot on Cummings & didn't cover the corruption in Vote Leave enough but at the end of the day it's a drama, not a documentary
2) there's a lot of stuff Brexit geeks like me would have like to have seen covered but as it was, there was a lot of material in there which they covered at breakneck speed.

Couple of things jumped out for me though
3) Firstly the mood at the end of the film captured I think the mood in the country now. There is no joy in #Brexit, no triumphant outpouring.

No one is getting what they want, and Leave supporters are blaming others for Brexit not working
Read 7 tweets
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1) You have a mortgage, several credit cards & a pay day loan so you go to the bank to restructure your finances

You can't get to an agreement & you can't afford the payments so you stop paying

But you still have the debt & now a busted credit score

This is no deal & the £39b
2) there's this idea that we save £39b if we #Brexit with no deal.
The obligation still exists, we've already agreed this. We're not "buying a deal" we're meeting commitments.
If we crash out & don't pay we're just sending a message, the UK is untrustworthy as well as incompetent
3) if you're the kind of person who thinks it's OK for the UK to walk away from a debt its already agreed to then you're probably the kind of person who doesn't pay his fair share of a meal, or gets his round in, or returns that borrowed drill

A bit of a shit basically
Read 3 tweets

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1) While all versions of #Brexit under the sun are being thought about in Parliament there’s no whiff of the EU changing its position
2) EU member states are not (yet) discussing the possibility of a second referendum or an extension of article 50 negotiating time amongst themselves
3) Regardless of the result of the vote in parliament on 11th, the EU is adamant the deal on the table is the best compromise for both sides - they say they can and will go no further
Read 10 tweets
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Reading and tweeting HMG's White Paper.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Starting with the conclusions (always the best bit)
1 Principled and practical are TM's new adjectves for #Brexit, which sounds conciliatory and is the sort of thing the EU do want to hear.
2
a Frictionless trade at the border (specific border not stated)
b UK out CAP & Fisheries, but in on crime & terror & shared prosperity fund
c No hard Border between NI & I, but protect the Union
d End of CJEU in UK, return "accountability" to the various elected assemblies
Read 59 tweets
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"#Brexit and EU agencies", our extensive look into third country relationships of the 36 EU agencies and how the UK might fit in.

swp-berlin.org/fileadmin/cont…

Albeit largely technical, agencies will have huge implications on Brexit.

Five points stand out in particular:
First, Agencies matter. Like the customs union, they are a technical aspect of the EU, that works and was thus hardly discussed in the UK before #Brexit.
But they are important for single market, but also justice and home affairs.

UK gov thus has already asked to continue participation in selected agencies, in particular in sectors important to the UK economy, like aviation, chemicals or pharma.
Read 10 tweets
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Once again the @frontlineclub is packed with journalists, @Byline_Media folk, and TV cameras for the latest revelations in the Cambridge Analytica / Trump / Brexit saga from two whistleblowers.

Follow this thread for live-tweeting coverage, and forgive my typos...
... first thing to note is that security has been increased a level or two since last week’s gathering. Two checkpoints against the guest list, and a minder scanning the room.

We’re about to kick off...
... the focus of attention tonight is Shahmir Sanni, joined again by @chrisinsilico who was the focus last week. @carolecadwalla will be joining later when she’s filed at the @guardian
Chris is carrying a large ring binder of documents...
Read 49 tweets
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1. Time for a #Brexit history lesson. Us old school leavers bumped into the remain canard that "three million jobs" depend on the EU time and again over many years. So well worn were the arguments that Remain scarcely dare deploy that line during the referendum.
2. It was was easily countered by wa of saying that those jobs depended on trade with the EU, not membership of a political union. So there was always the historic inference that we wanted the maximum trade cooperation possible.
3. If asked if we would support a Brexit that would necessarily result in new barriers to trade, pretty much ecvery leaver would have said no. The infernence is that we would look to safeguard those three million jobs.
Read 21 tweets
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I'm currently at this #Brexit conference in Copenhagen, where the British ambassador and several #DExEU officials will be on panels with representatives of Danish trade and security. It'll be very interesting to see what's said, especially in light of May's recent Munich speech.
And now that I'm not desperately trying to keep up with livetweeting it, I shall turn my mess of self-retweets into a proper thread. #Brexit #BrexitDK
acknowledges #Brexit will have challenges; emphasises no naïveté regarding "land of milk and honey". Refreshing sense of pragmatism; we'll see how #DExEU and DK reps present it.

#BrexitDK
Read 55 tweets

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