1. Karma Works in Mysterious Ways
Top Republicans say they're seeing a surprising and widespread surge in GOP voter enthusiasm, powered largely by support for Brett Kavanaugh and his Supreme Court nomination.
Top Republicans say they're seeing a surprising and widespread surge in GOP voter enthusiasm, powered largely by support for Brett Kavanaugh and his Supreme Court nomination.
2. "The Kavanaugh debate has dropped a political grenade into the middle of an electorate that had been largely locked in Democrats' favor for the past six months," said Josh Holmes, a former top aide to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.
3. Pointing to Montana, Indiana, West Virginia, Missouri and Tennessee, Holmes added: "Private polling shows the enthusiasm shift is ... unmistakable in the red states that will determine control of the Senate."
4. In North Dakota, one of the top races, a Fox News poll yesterday showed Republican challenger Kevin Cramer leading Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D) by 12 points (53%-41%) — up from four points last month.
"ND now appears out of reach entirely for Democrats," Holmes said.
"ND now appears out of reach entirely for Democrats," Holmes said.
5. Missouri Rising Action, a super PAC backing Republican Josh Hawley, yesterday got back numbers from pollster Jim McLaughlin showing Hawley leading Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) by 52-44. That's a huge swing from the previous poll, in June, which had McCaskill leading Hawley 46-42.
6. Across the critical midterm states, Republicans point to a major mood swing among voters — what one top operative called a "tidal shift."
7. An NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll released yesterday found that the "wide Democratic enthusiasm advantage that has defined the 2018 campaign up to this point has disappeared," NPR reported.
8. "In July, there was a 10-point gap between the number of Democrats and Republicans saying the November elections were 'very important.' Now, that is down to 2 points, a statistical tie."
9. Republican pollster Glen Bolger, co-founder of Public Opinion Strategies, agreed that Democrats' enthusiasm advantage has dissipated.
Thank you Democrats. Hope you redouble your overreaching after the midterms, because 2020 is a skip and a jump away.
The End
Thank you Democrats. Hope you redouble your overreaching after the midterms, because 2020 is a skip and a jump away.
The End
Nate Silver, who analyzes polls, acknowledges that Republicans appear to be benefiting from the Kavanaugh fight. He writes: “In our Classic Senate forecast, for example, Republicans are now 77 percent favorites to hold the chamber, up from 68 percent before last week’s hearings.”
"The reason for the greater enthusiasm of GOP voters to turn out can be explained by widespread anger at the unfair and outrageous tactics of the left in trying to block Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court confirmation." -- John Fund
"By shooting so low against Kavanaugh, Democrats may have actually shot themselves in the foot." -- John Fund
WSJ: “Republicans have figured out that if the left can willfully, even gleefully, destroy a man as distinguished as Brett Kavanaugh, they can and will do it to any conservative. Voters know this is about the left’s will to power by any means necessary.”
"Of course, it would be ironic if the all-out assault against Brett Kavanaugh wound up helping Republicans solidify their control of the Senate, which in turn would make it easier for President Trump to fill yet another vacancy on the Supreme Court." -- John Fund
