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CrowPointPartners @cppinvest
, 10 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
1/ At the risk of stating the obvious, Tesla as a stock is in serious trouble. It is a mistake to think that stopping Musk's Twitter stock-pumping has not had an impact. It clearly has.
2/ Musk knows how to pump a stock - that's his true gift, being a master grifter. You'll recall when Tesla raised all its money in the past, the predicate always was something to come: new products, gross margin improvements, profits, cash flow.
3/ None of which, of course, ever materialized. With opaque financials, deliberately misleading operating metrics (I would argue fraudulent), Musk as Blanche DuBois has always needed the ignorance of retail strangers to propel this stock.
4/ Keep investors guessing at all times. Hint at short burns to come, the details of which only you know. Whisper something new to add to the mysticism, dangle the next shiny yet unknown thing and presto, ignorant retail momentum players are induced into the dream.
5/ With the SEC involved, the door was/is shut on new institutional buying. Doesn't matter if the SEC's issue be closed or not, the SEC's look at Musk's behavior shined a spotlight on a big risk in the stock always simmering but now obvious: Musk's unpredictable stupidity.
6/ Whether or not you think this stock has upside, like the gullible fools at Ark, even if you did, any prudent long term investor has to put those sugarplum valuation fantasies aside and avoid this name simply due to the minefield it now represents.
7/ 90mm shares are owned by non-passive investors that are presumably free to sell and not bound by prospectus or index rules. You are seeing that relentless selling now, I suspect you will see it continue, largely unabated.
8/ This stock is in the death spiral. There is nothing fundamentally the company can do to stop it. It can't manufacture demand when none exists. The stock sold off when a muzzled Musk couldn't pump out some absurd nonsense about future demand.
9/ Now that the SEC is watching closely, and the company's public announcements have to at least resemble the truth, the pie-in-the-sky nonsense guidance regarding future demand has stopped, and with it institutional interest in the shares. It ain't coming back.
This stock has always confounded investors. The bizarre trading patterns, the blind, obsequious, greedy, buying of retail will now wane, except from the true believers, because all absurdly-valued faith stocks with poor fundamentals end the same way.

Suddenly and with tears.
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