So this week's Brexit Probability Tracker illustrates the potential ambiguity of complex international agreements. If we end up with an agreement for a transitional Customs Union with an intended FTA end state how do you classify that?
Basically the probability of a long term transition / Customs Union mash-up is rising - to near 50%. If that fails we turn either towards no-deal options on one side, or discussions of referendum or EEA on the other. 
The trend is actually relatively stable - some options rise and fall a little as they receive more scrutiny, but some kind of blind Brexit has always been favourite, which is a factor of the negotiating sequence as much as anything
And please always remember this tracker is so entirely unscientific that it has been rejected by the money markets as a basis for currency fluctuations, and yet somehow it continues to illustrate the week in Brexit
