1. This is not debatable. The Kavanaugh controversy has helped Republicans. There was no downside for the GOP. They needed enthusiasm. There was no upside for the Democrats. They needed to NOT derail their enthusiasm. What the media won't tell you, is that this mistake cost...
2. What the media hasn't explained, is that this mistake cost the Democrats already. Since the Kavanaugh controversy brought home GOP and GOP-leaning indie women, at least two "battleground" states are off the map. It's Oct. 6, and there are now just 2% undecided in North Dakota.
3. McCaskill in Missouri looks to be following a similar pattern as Heitkamp. The movement is less pronounced and a few days behind, but it's unmistakable. Donnelly is stuck around 42% in Indiana and Blackburn continues to widen her lead in Tennessee. It's a very big shift.
4. Democrats put themselves in a terrible position in an election cycle when all the fundamentals were on their side. All they had to do was not unmask and reign in the crazy. They scared the hell out of those Republican women they thought they'd win. And the real danger...
5. And the real danger for Democrats is a one-two combination:
Left Jab: A defeat on confirmation hurts enthusiasm.
Right Hook: Indies moving back to the GOP.
The first is unknown. The second already happened. In the month before this fight, they leaned slightly Democrat.
Left Jab: A defeat on confirmation hurts enthusiasm.
Right Hook: Indies moving back to the GOP.
The first is unknown. The second already happened. In the month before this fight, they leaned slightly Democrat.
6. As I'm writing this thread, I'm listening to Mark (Penn) and Neil Cavuto. He made a point I stressed earlier in the year and no one wants to acknowledge. This is why he's not confident a single digit lead is enough for House Democrats. peoplespunditdaily.com/news/elections…
7. In only two cycles — 86/90 — Democrats didn’t underperform the generic ballot. Further, in only one of those cycles (90), did Democrats outperform, albeit by a meager 2 points. In 1986, the polling was right on the money. peoplespunditdaily.com/news/elections…
8. Polling this week will tell us a lot. Will GOP enthusiasm fizzle if Brett Kavanaugh is confirmed? I don't know about that. Given how high it is and b/c this is a "liberty and way of life" issue. If you follow me, you know it has longer staying power w/ GOP voters. Women also.
9. A note: Laura's (@LauraBaris) coming piece makes the case that picking Brett Kavanaugh looks like the right move for the GOP after all B/C 1) few others could weather such opposition, and 2) it lit a fire under the GOP base. Led to historic speech by @SenatorCollins.
