"Since market cycles vary from one to the next in terms of amplitude, pace and duration of their fluctuations, they’re not regular enough to enable us to be sure what’ll happen next on the basis of what has gone on before." Howard Marks like to draw pictures to make his points: 
Jason Zweig: "Marks admits his book is a tug of war between his certainty that 'we don’t know what the future holds' and his belief that 'we can identify where the market stands in its cycle.'" It doesn’t tell us anything about the short-term but does about long term probability.
"There is no single reliable gauge that one can look to for an indication of whether market participants’ behavior at a point in time is prudent or imprudent. All we can do is assemble anecdotal evidence and try to draw the correct inferences from it.” 25iq.com/2018/10/06/les…
