Atiku Can Defeat Buhari. Here’s How--A THREAD
I’m frankly not excited about an Atiku presidency. In a previous widely shared Facebook status update, which I developed into a full-length column, I dismissed Atiku as a cancerous old stager. 1/11
I’m frankly not excited about an Atiku presidency. In a previous widely shared Facebook status update, which I developed into a full-length column, I dismissed Atiku as a cancerous old stager. 1/11
I also advocated a third force that is neither Atiku nor Buhari, which Obasanjo quoted in his last public letter to Buhari. Nevertheless, if I have to choose between Atiku and Buhari, I’d choose Atiku with a lot of hesitation. 2/11
There's no question that Buhari is d absolute worst president Nigeria has ever had d misfortune to be burdened with. He's thoroughly & irredeemably incompetent, not to mention unapologetically bigoted & lazy. Only a sick country would reward such a person with a second term. 3/11
Atiku does have visibly thick, ugly ethical stains on him, which is why I'm not excited about him, but he is, without a doubt, cosmopolitan, passionate about learning, and infinitely better versed in knowledge of governance than Buhari would ever be in a million lifetimes. 4/11
Here’s why I think he has a chance against Buhari. There are broadly 5 voting blocs in Nigeria: the Northern Muslim bloc (which isn’t based on contiguous geography), the northern Christian bloc (which is also not based on contiguous geography), 5/11
the southwest bloc (which is impervious to religious differences), the southeast (which is entirely Igbo) and the southern minority bloc. To win a presidential election, you need to win at least four of these blocs. 6/11
Because of his history of comparatively genuine pan-Nigerianism, particularly in contradistinction to Buhari’s nakedly unremorseful ethno-regional chauvinism, Atiku will handily win the northern Christian, southeast, and southern minority blocs. 7/11
He'll lose d northern Muslim bloc, & d southwest bloc would be tricky, esp. if his running mate is chosen, as is rumored, from d southeast. So it won’t be a cake walk. But here's what he needs to do if he must unseat Buhari. The South expects power to return to it in 2023. 8/11
The Buhari campaign says only a Buhari second term can guarantee that. Atiku can neutralize that by signing a legally binding, publicly available affidavit that emphatically states that he will not, under any circumstance, seek a second term in 2023. 9/11
It’s not enough to just say it since PMB, who made bigger pretenses to “integrity,” has violated this pledge. His advanced age, in additn to signing an affidavit that can be used against him in court shld he violate his pledge, will redound to his acceptability in d South. 10/11
Finally, he should actively reach out 2 pple in d southwest, particularly those who're reeling under d hegemonic strangulation of Tinubu, & strike a deal w/ them. A Buhari 2nd term will end Nigeria as we know it. Of that, I'm sure. Anyone, at this time, is better than Buhari. 11/
