Here's a brief thread on where we're at with Brexit:
My understanding is that @MichelBarnier will NOT produce a draft on the Political Declaration on Wed as had been expected. At the very most it'll be an annotated paper (headings, no text) and even then it won't be adopted Wed
My understanding is that @MichelBarnier will NOT produce a draft on the Political Declaration on Wed as had been expected. At the very most it'll be an annotated paper (headings, no text) and even then it won't be adopted Wed
This is all due to the "tunnel" factor, ie things being so sensitive ahead of next weeks EU summit that all sides go into a blackout to avoid leaks + eruptions. The next step is the UK's backstop proposals but even that will be teased out in talks rather than formal publication
Both the EU + UK may decide to try and nail down the Withdrawal Agreement first, then focus on the Political Declaration between the Oct + Nov summits, but that has an obvious disadvantage for the UK...
London would like to use the PD for leverage: ie, we won't agree to the backstop, unless we like what's in the Political Declaration. It also means that the WA, including the backstop, wd have to survive intense scrutiny in the UK in the weeks between the two summits...
Either way, both big elements will be hard to "digest" if the EU + UK try to get both over the line ahead of next Wed/Thurs, hence no major publications this week. Instead it wll all be about "tunnel" discussions (Olly Robbins is though to be in Brussels for same).
Much hinges on the UK backstop proposals and what they mean by a UK-wide customs backstop. Member states want to be helpful, but need detail. April 29 Negotiating Guidelines refer to "unique circumstances" on island of Ireland, so that's already a marker against UK-wide
The French are said to have an "open mind" but won't agree to any proposal that undermines the integrity of the single market and the EU's autonomy on decision making. Either way, "tentative" is the watch word on all fronts.
