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Tony Connelly @tconnellyRTE
, 7 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Here's a brief thread on where we're at with Brexit:
My understanding is that @MichelBarnier will NOT produce a draft on the Political Declaration on Wed as had been expected. At the very most it'll be an annotated paper (headings, no text) and even then it won't be adopted Wed
This is all due to the "tunnel" factor, ie things being so sensitive ahead of next weeks EU summit that all sides go into a blackout to avoid leaks + eruptions. The next step is the UK's backstop proposals but even that will be teased out in talks rather than formal publication
Both the EU + UK may decide to try and nail down the Withdrawal Agreement first, then focus on the Political Declaration between the Oct + Nov summits, but that has an obvious disadvantage for the UK...
London would like to use the PD for leverage: ie, we won't agree to the backstop, unless we like what's in the Political Declaration. It also means that the WA, including the backstop, wd have to survive intense scrutiny in the UK in the weeks between the two summits...
Either way, both big elements will be hard to "digest" if the EU + UK try to get both over the line ahead of next Wed/Thurs, hence no major publications this week. Instead it wll all be about "tunnel" discussions (Olly Robbins is though to be in Brussels for same).
Much hinges on the UK backstop proposals and what they mean by a UK-wide customs backstop. Member states want to be helpful, but need detail. April 29 Negotiating Guidelines refer to "unique circumstances" on island of Ireland, so that's already a marker against UK-wide
The French are said to have an "open mind" but won't agree to any proposal that undermines the integrity of the single market and the EU's autonomy on decision making. Either way, "tentative" is the watch word on all fronts.
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More from @tconnellyRTE see all

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Sooo...happy new year all. And back we are with more of the same. So here's a quick thread on this week's Brexit manoevrings:

1) The European Council on Dec 13 was pretty clear: clarification on the backstop, yes - but no legal instrument (Dublin was particularly against that)
2) Theresa May probably received some face to face nod from other EU leaders that there could be further assurances on the backstop, but nothing in writing. So when 2018 ended no meetings were envisaged, and nothing political or legal formally promised
3) There were phone calls in early New Year (May taling to Tusk, Juncker, Rutte etc) and official level contacts, but nothing of real substance appears to have emerged (there may also have been phone calls between @simoncoveney and David Lidington)
Read 13 tweets
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Commission: Today's package includes 14 measures in a limited number of areas where a "no-deal" scenario would create major disruption for citizens and businesses in the EU27. These areas include financial services, air transport, customs, and climate policy, amongst others.
“These measures will not – and cannot – mitigate the overall impact of a "no-deal" scenario, nor do they in any way compensate for the lack of stakeholder preparedness or replicate the full benefits of EU membership or the terms of any transition period, as provided for in the WA
“They are limited to specific areas where it is absolutely necessary to protect the vital interests of the EU and where preparedness measures on their own are not sufficient”
Read 3 tweets
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The Taoiseach Leo Varadkar has said he was "very satisfied" with the EU's position on the Irish backstop at last night's summit meeting.
"We as the EU stand by the Withdrawal Agreement that was negotiated, we don't believe it's up for renegotiation, we're very keen to begin, as soon as it's ratified, talks on the future relationship, because we want to have a close relationship with the United Kingdom,"
"AS Europe we reaffirmed our commitment to the need for a backstop, and not just because it protects Ireland and ensures no hard border between NI and Ireland, thus protecting the peace process and the GFA, but also because it's a European issue too,
Read 6 tweets

Related threads

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#Brexit #thread
1/ If you don’t follow Brexit every day, here’s some advice. Let go of any illusions that this drama is about trade protocols, residency rights or the status of the Irish border. Brexit is the story of a proud former imperial power undergoing a mid-life crisis
2/ The rest of the world is left listening to Britain’s therapy session as they drone on about their ex-spouse, unable to see, admit or address their own flaws.
3/ The promise of Brexit was that it would make Britain feel big again. “Britain is special,” the Brexiteers assured British voters, who cast their ballots accordingly. But Brexit has proven that for the first time in modern history, Britain is small.
Read 22 tweets
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1) How much of a threat is the Spain/Gibraltar question to the #Brexit summit on Sunday? This issue has the potential to be either a) huge or b) to disappear in to a puff of smoke
2) Spain feels hoodwinked. Gibraltar is of huge national interest (and hurt pride) for many Spaniards. Many at the very least saw an opportunity with #Brexit to gain considerable influence over the Rock
3) At the beginning of #Brexit negotiations Spain was promised that no decisions could be taken over the future of Gibraltar without consultation with Spain which is why throughout the negotiations process, there have been bilateral Spain-U.K. talks in parallel
Read 14 tweets
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#thread i remembered there was a colour to the memories of those years. There were so many people who brought the depth of that colour to my life. Pulled a very few of them out.
Read 7 tweets
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Here's a thread attempting to set out the #Brexit timetable for the next few months, based on this insightful @brunobrussels article:
thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/a…
Salzburg Summit 20 Sept:
"Shouting over the “backstop” + starting point of a '“political declaration” on the future relationship that will be thrashed out at a sequence of summits'
Tory party conference 1-3 Oct:
Hoping "Boris Johnson and the Brexiteers in the Conservative European Research Group" do not do anything to prevent the next planned steps
Read 12 tweets
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What is most interesting about this piece by Dr Graham Gudgin on @BrexitCentral is how virtually identical it is to every other pro-Brexit piece on the Irish border.

Here's a brief thread noting some of these common features.

1/
brexitcentral.com/dublin-needs-t…
The border as battleground:
"The Irish border thus remains the key battleground in the war of attrition that is the UK-EU Brexit talks."

This has the effect of asserting that if UK moves on red lines here it loses the Brexit war.

Thus raising the stakes & raising tensions.
2/
It blames the change of Taoiseach from Kenny to Varadkar for "hard stance from the Irish govt that has soured UK-Irish relations".
It sees Irish intentions as barely disguised irredentism.
Yet lays all responsibility for progress on Irish govt accepting "practical solutions".
3/
Read 7 tweets
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.@MichelBarnier : "no possibility" of a UK-EU trade being concluded by #Brexit in March 2019. This is not news, even to @DavidDavisMP

So what can UK realistically get next year?

And does that tell us about UK strategy?

1/thread
First. What is possible.

In January talks will resume and the UK will focus on transition. This is DexEU and Treasury focus.

They will strike an early agreement on this, even pushing to find a way to formalise it prior to the Withdrawal Agreement being ratified /2
The EU will likely reject the attempt to formalise transition deal in some early, focusing instead on the following:

- drafting withdrawal agreement
- creating dispute resolution mechanisms on Money etc
- drafting a "political declaration" on trade/future relationship /3
Read 16 tweets

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