Thread by @Noahpinion

1/This article by @devintstewart gives me the opportunity to evaluate Trump's presidency so far. warontherocks.com/2018/10/trump-…

What has Trump actually accomplished? What good or bad things of substance has he done?

2/Devin thinks Trump's accomplishments since taking office have been real, and mostly positive.

I disagree.

3/First, the economy.

Have the tax cuts raised wages or employment? Industry-by-industry analysis says not yet, no. bloomberg.com/view/articles/…

4/Nor have wages gone up much at all, really.

5/So I think the most we can say for Trump on the economy is that his policies have not yet derailed it.

Tax cuts will exacerbate inequality, and the trade war may yet derail us, but Trump hasn't managed to crush the boom that began under Obama.

6/Devin lists "two Supreme Court appointments" among Trump's accomplishments.

This is weird, because the President always gets to do Supreme Court appointments. It's just his job. And Trump doesn't seem to have done a very good job of it, with Kavanaugh.

7/Devin says that there has been "progress on trade relations with Canada and Mexico".

In fact, Trump tore up NAFTA and replaced it with something very similar to NAFTA.

Other than Canada slightly opening its dairy market, not clear how this is a "win".

8/Meanwhile, Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs hurt U.S. manufacturers, so overall, trade with Canada and Mexico seems to have had regress, not progress. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

9/On China, yes, Trump is definitely putting the U.S. more on a "Cold War" footing. wsj.com/articles/u-s-e…

It remains to be seen what will come of this. Since the effects are completely unknown at this point, I'd say we shouldn't list this as an "accomplishment".

10/As for North/South Korea peace, it'll be good if it happens, but so far there's nothing concrete. Nor does North Korea show any sign of wanting to denuclearize. vox.com/2018/9/19/1787…

11/Devin's declaration of progress on the Korean peninsula seems, at this point, like wishful thinking and unjustified optimism. But we'll see!

12/Now, let's talk about some Trump failures.

He failed to help Puerto Rico after the devastation of Hurricane Maria. nytimes.com/2018/08/28/us/…

13/His "zero tolerance" family separation policy drew near-universal condemnation, forcing him to mostly reverse it.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump_adm…

14/He has contributed to a rapid deterioration in global opinions of the U.S.

pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018…

15/Now, it is clear that Trump could get a LOT worse.

We haven't yet had an economic crisis, war, or breakdown of social order under Trump!

Yet!

16/The truth, as I see it, is that so far Trump's impact has been mostly symbolic.

He has served as a locus for partisan anger and hatred - a symbol of the deep divisions that afflict America.

17/If and when America faces a major economic or geopolitical shock, I don't have confidence in Trump to handle it well...but I guess we'll cross that bridge when we come to it!

In the meantime, Trump is less of a leader than a trollish internet meme come to life.

(end)