Thread by @christackettnow

**I'm reposting my thread from yesterday to ensure that the chart titles are all correct (had a date typo on several). This way, if any portion of the thread gets shared, we can minimize confusion.

An article was published by @DallasBizNews on 10/15 that is one of the most poorly done data driven articles I think I have ever seen. The article is titled "Does Texas’ senate race belong to Texans?" and throws out some HORRIFIC numbers. I'm going point by point with reality.

The article says it's going to dig into the numbers from 07/01/17 - 06/30/18 and explore out of state contributions to @BetoORourke and @tedcruz. They get pretty close on one side and are miles away on the other.

The claim from @DallasBizNews is that this is all sourced from the Federal Election Commission. I just pulled everything they did, focused purely on those items flagged as "Individual Contributions", extracting any money from PACs or joint fundraising committees

They open saying @BetoORourke had 12,089 individual donations from 7/1/17 - 6/30/18.
--Reality: Not even close. Beto had 56,187 direct donations, plus another 44,456 individual donations through ActBlue.

Next claim is that 2,658 of @BetoORourke's donations came from out-of-state or out-of-country donors.
--Reality: According to the FEC data, 12,489 contributions came from outside TX. This excludes the ActBlue contributions, since they aren't flagged with a state.

The @DallasBizNews claimed that 2,658 out of state contributions accounted for $2.4 million to Beto O'Rourke
--Reality: 12,489 out of state contributions accounted for $4.4 million

Then the claim is made, from 7/1/17 - 6/30/18 that @BetoORourke raised $7,221,118 in individual donations.
--Reality: Not even close. Beto raised $12,670,671 directly and another $5.8 million in individual donations processed via ActBlue

Let's turn to Ted Cruz. @DallasBizNews says Cruz received 40,456 individual, out-of-state or out-of-country donations that combined for a total of about $3.6 million.
--Reality: Hey, these ones are pretty close. 35,379 contributions totaling $3,323,321.

The next claim is that Cruz’s primary and general elections campaigns earned 68,651 individual donations.
--Reality: Close. Data says 60,111. They also said Cruz raised a total of $7,286,851 from those donations. $6,659,226.34 is the number I've got. Seeing a theme here?

How about average donation from Out Of State individual donors? The claim is Cruz is $89 and Beto is a whopping $908.
--Reality: Cruz's avg donation is $93.93 and Beto's is $354.89

Why does @DallasBizNews think there is a difference in per donation average? "Cruz’s donors appear to be recurring, small amount donors – possibly through pledged contributions" "O’Rourke’s donors are more frequently one-time, lump-sum donors".

--Reality on how often out of state individual donors are giving to Cruz and Beto:
Cruz - 3.84 contributions per donor
Beto - 2.94 contributions per donor

Next @DallasBizNews tries to focus on "individual donations stemming from Texas addresses" and claims "a total of 9,431 for O’Rourke and 28,195 for Cruz".
--Reality: Wrong. Beto had 43,698 in TX. Cruz had 24,732. Hmm, one of those is close, the other isn't.

.@DallasBizNews talks about the $ coming from those TX individual donations. "O’Rourke received more than $4.8 million in individual donations in primary and general campaign dollars. Texans donated about $3.66 million to Cruz."
--Reality: Wrong. Beto had $8.2m, Cruz had $3.3m

The article continues, now focusing on CA. You know, the place with hair dye and tofu. "Cruz’s campaign received $504,761 from 6,203 individual donations and O’Rourke received $850,291 from 898 individual donations."
--Reality:
Beto - 3,560 contribs ($1.4m)
Cruz - 5,418 ($430k)

How about the occupation of out of state individual donors? Is Attorney really "the most prevalent occupation for O’Rourke’s out-of-state donors"?
--Reality: No. Not Employed is 1, Retired is 2, Attorney is 3

How about the occupation of Cruz's out of state individual donors? Is "retired" number 1 for Cruz?
--Reality: Yes. Followed by Homemaker, Engineer, Physician, and you guessed it, Attorney

If you want a real comparison of the overall individual donors to @BetoORourke and @tedcruz from 7/1/17 - 6/30/18, here ya go.
--Donations
Beto - 56,187 + 44,456 from ActBlue
Cruz - 60,111
--Dollars
Beto - $12.6m + $5.8 from ActBlue
Cruz - $6.6m

If you want a real comparison of the Texas ONLY individual donors to @BetoORourke and @tedcruz from 7/1/17 - 6/30/18, here ya go.
--Donations
Beto - 43,698
Cruz - 24,732
--Dollars
Beto - $8,238,408
Cruz - $3,335,905

If you want a real comparison of the Outside Texas individual donors to @BetoORourke and @tedcruz from 7/1/17 - 6/30/18, here ya go.
--Donations
Beto - 12,489
Cruz - 35,379
--Dollars
Beto - $4,432,262
Cruz - $3,323,321

If you want a real comparison of the California individual donors to @BetoORourke and @tedcruz from 7/1/17 - 6/30/18, here ya go.
--Donations
Beto - 3,560
Cruz - 5,418
--Dollars
Beto - $1,414,073
Cruz - $430,885

Cynical me says there was a narrative here. If you struggle with the numbers and the research is bad, it's bad across the board. But that isn't what happened here. The Cruz numbers were close enough to mine that maybe a filter was different. The Beto numbers weren't even close.

If you want to pull these numbers for yourself, go here, just like I did this morning: fec.gov/data/
Type in Beto. Type in Cruz.
Click 2017-2018
Click Itemized Individual Contributions
Change the Transaction Time Period to 7/1/17-6/30/18
Export

I used exactly the same filters on the downloaded data from Beto and Cruz.
--Column K - Filter for Individual only
--Column V is the contributor state. Filter that to get TX, CA, or don't filter to get everything.

The article I'm ranting about that is riddled with inaccuracies can be found here:
bizjournals.com/dallas/news/20…

I saw it when someone I'm friends with on Facebook posted a link from @wfaa: wfaa.com/article/news/d… …
This inaccurate article is being passed off as legit when a news organization pushes it out. We have to do better.

Integrity matters. When you are dealing with numbers, data integrity is everything. /end