Let's put the #PeoplesVoteMarch and Raab's no deal backstop comments in the context of the economy. Because today the @cbitweets quantifies the impact of Brexit uncertainty and the risk of a cliff edge in a new survey. And it's a big deal. Buckle up (1/)
The big headline:
80% of firms say Brexit has meant they've cancelled or delayed investments.
This time last year it was 36-40%. That's a HUGE spike. And it's because it's not just pre-referendum plans shelved, but the UK being left out when new decisions are being made (2/)
80% of firms say Brexit has meant they've cancelled or delayed investments.
This time last year it was 36-40%. That's a HUGE spike. And it's because it's not just pre-referendum plans shelved, but the UK being left out when new decisions are being made (2/)
We hear this endlessly.
An East Mids medical tech firm told me they'd wanted to launch a new product line but they'd lost £1m of contracts because their customers want EU firms now.
A company making drills told me they've got a total investment freeze barring maintenance (3/)
An East Mids medical tech firm told me they'd wanted to launch a new product line but they'd lost £1m of contracts because their customers want EU firms now.
A company making drills told me they've got a total investment freeze barring maintenance (3/)
But that uncertainty effect on investment is compounded by the contingency planning going on. 41% of @CBItweets firms have implemented some form of contingency plan. That's acted. Spent money that could have gone on growth on getting ready for no deal (4/)
And what's that 41% doing? Well, the numbers speak for themselves.
And 15% of those firms planning to move jobs as part of contingency plans should make MPs sit up (5/)
And 15% of those firms planning to move jobs as part of contingency plans should make MPs sit up (5/)
A reminder that we're talking serious money here. We're talking about individual big companies spending £10s of millions, but even SMEs spending over the £1million each mark. So no wonder they're cutting back on other investments right? (6/)
Now it's not just bad news. These contingency plans can be halted. It's worth remembering that implementing contingency plans is a process eg. you decide to buy a warehouse, you find land, you get planning permission, you agree price, you order stock, you hire security etc. (7/)
For 19% of firms, it's done. There's nothing you can do to stop their no deal plans now.
But 15% will make further decisions this month.
24% will make further decisions in November.
Another 24% will make further decisions in December (8/9)
But 15% will make further decisions this month.
24% will make further decisions in November.
Another 24% will make further decisions in December (8/9)
So if and when we get the Withdrawal Agreement has a real material impact. We have to get the backstop sorted, we can't keep dragging this out.
Full figures here: cbi.org.uk/news/8-out-of-… (9/9)
Full figures here: cbi.org.uk/news/8-out-of-… (9/9)
