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katya adler @BBCkatyaadler
, 5 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Looks like head on collision with EU. Brussels says U.K. agreed to an “all weather backstop” so it cannot have a time limit and must be written in to the withdrawal agreement ie NOW - during transition which is AFTER Brexit day. See my blog: bbc.com/news/world-eur…
So far EU has been willing to soften language but not legal requirements of backstop. So now what? #Brexit
To the EU May’s hardening on backstop looks again like her putting her party and her survival as PM ahead of negotiating an agreement with Brussels and avoiding a no deal #Brexit
EU open to idea of U.K. wide customs union as a backstop BUT says can’t be negotiated in time to complete withdrawal agreement this autumn. Can mention customs union in withdrawal as intention but EU views the Northern Ireland specific backstop as the only ready to go solution
Word ‘not’ missing here. NOT after transition has started - which is after Brexit day. Note to self: Do not #Brexit tweet and walk at same time
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1) EU watching to see if their #Brexit deal negotiated with the PM is defeated in parliament tomorrow and if so, by how much
2) EU leaders will invite Theresa May to tell them what’s going on in the U.K, what her next steps will be and what she hopes for from them at their scheduled EU summit on Weds and Thursday this week #Brexit
3) EU v much wants to avoid a no-deal scenario but EU leaders unlikely to provide even written clarifications on controversial #Brexit issues like the backstop to help the PM unless they get a pretty cast iron guarantee that will get the deal through Parliament in a second vote
Read 5 tweets
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Again, at such a key moment in UK and at such high political levels, evidence of deep misunderstanding of EU: The PM is under pressure in some quarters to delay #Brexit vote to allow her first to “improve” deal in Brussels BUT EU is determined not to budge at this stage
2) All EU leaders watching tomorrow’s vote. Of course they want to avoid a no deal #Brexit BUT they feel the deal - so painfully negotiated between EU and UK - is too fresh to re-open. Clarifications, yes but fundamental renegotiations, no.
3) The EU’s international reputation as a tough deal-maker is at stake here too. If Brussels now suddenly “gives in” to U.K. on EU red lines (eg backstop) then that would weaken the EU’s reputation in future trade negotiations with other non EU countries
Read 6 tweets
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1) ECJ has just ruled - as expected - that U.K. can unilaterally revoke article 50 - the process by which U.K. leaves the EU -as long as parliament agrees or a new U.K. gov is in favour (following a general election)
2) ECJ has ruled that if U.K. changes its mind about #Brexit before the official leaving date of 29 March 2019 then the U.K. would stay in EU under current conditions - ie with rebate, opt-outs from Euro currency etc
3) Remember this is an ECJ ruling. It goes against European Commission which said revoking article 50 shouldn’t be a unilateral action by a leaving member state (Brussels worries about setting precedent in case other countries might pretend to “leave” in order to get better deal)
Read 3 tweets

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It seems incredible to me we should be asked to *welcome* the prospect of being a non-voting member of the customs union, with the EU controlling our trade and customs policy. 1/
To be clear about how this would work: when the EU signed a trade agreement with a third country (eg China), in the backstop the U.K. would be compelled to make all the market concessions agreed by the EU BUT that third country would not need to extend its concessions to us. 2/
In other words, there would be no reciprocity. None. We would become the EU’s expendable bargaining chip in its trade negotiations. 3/
Read 10 tweets
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U.S. Says Company Unit Did #BusinessInIran
#HuaweiUpdate
Bloomberg News bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
#Meng was charged with conspiracy to defraud banks. Canada’s Crown lawyer told the judge she has incentive to #flee the country. #Dishonesty is a factor in deciding her bail. The Crown lawyer argued that it’s difficult to set #bail high enough to prevent her from fleeing.
#Huawei Used #Skycomm to do #BusinessInIran
Canada’s prosecutor said the case against #Meng is for #fraud in deceiving banks on the relationship between Skycomm and Huawei. The U.S. claims Huawei used its Skycomm unit to do business in Iran, breaching #USsanctions
Read 16 tweets
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Comments on the 6 points raised in @alexebarker’s piece (thread).
1. Whether Norway et al would welcome U.K. participation in EFTA/EEA isn’t a question I claim expertise on: FWIW I can see both political opportunities and political problems.
2. *Any* UK/EU final relationship will require ratification by all the EU27 (including the infamous Walloon parliament), and cannot be written into the Art 50 Withdrawal Agreement. So that’s not an objection in itself.
Read 21 tweets
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How @DailyMailUK twisted the results of @Survation poll and created a nice little frontpage to support Theresa May with some beautiful YESes in red and some lovely supporting words, even though the front page does not actually reflects the results of the poll...
So, let's have a closer look at some of the questions asked and the ACTUAL answers of voters...
Q1. When UK Govt's negotiations over the terms of Britain's exit from #EU are complete, would you support or oppose holding a People's Vote - a referendum - asking the public their view?

- Support 48% 👈
- Oppose 34%
- Don't know 18%

Large margin 14% to support a #PeoplesVote!
Read 18 tweets
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Interesting how the #Brexit weather has changed in Brussels.

U.K. preparing to publish a customs paper which essentially lays out idea of all-U.K. customs union for the temporary backstop.

Understand won’t tackle alignment or ECJ etc.

And yet... /1
Per senior EU source who is not usually too charitable towards bungling Brits: “we are in the mood of trying to welcome the UK customs paper as much as we can" /2
It’s not two weeks since everyone was daggers drawn over Galileo and U.K. demands for its billion back. /3
Read 7 tweets
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Here are the observables from David Davis’s appearance at the @CommonsEUexit. It’s a long thread folks, but I hope a handy digest of his thoughts.
1. Davis does not believe the Irish backstop will require NI to have any different arrangements to the rest of the UK, nor does he believe the rest of the UK will have to align with EU rules for the backstop to work
2. Davis regards June as an artificial deadline for the backstop to be operationalised in the legal text, and says @campaignforLeo agrees with this
Read 25 tweets

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