Profile picture
Tony Yates @t0nyyates
, 8 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Almost no single policy changes can ever be shown to fail or succeed so clearly as this. So many other things are going on at the same time. Those arguing in bad faith [which is a large proportion of those arguing] can use those things to muddy the waters.
If Brexit seems to founder, Brexiters can make bad faith arguments about counterfactual Brexits that would have been great were it not for the bunglers. In fact, this process has of course already begun!
It's just this problem that motivates social sciences like economics. Here we use natural pseudo experiments afforded by history - see the econometric analysis of the impact of trade barriers - to see whether Brexit will 'fail'.
The disadvantage of this approach is that we can't tell how the general case of trade barrier erection applies to our UK case. But the advantage is we already know the answer even before we have embarked on it!
David's projection of how Brexit and its diagnosis, and the effects of that diagnosis, play out also fail for other reasons. He presumes that the point of Brexit is still to have particular political and economic effects. But things have got so ridiculous that this may not hold
A bit like the French revolution, which became ever more extreme and self-consuming, Brexit - caricatured, and in the minds of some, only - has become a moniker for tribal warfare that is already on that same path of mission redefinition.
Brexit can't possibly be seen to fail, if this is indeed what is happening, or will happen. And there is ample mud in the social scientific structure of it, for a failure not to be discerned as such.
And the knowledge transmission mechanism - borrowing @sjwrenlewis ' term - won't guarantee to correct us either, as enough of the media will bend to accommodate the tribal messaging and factlessness.
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to Tony Yates
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member and get exclusive features!

Premium member ($30.00/year)

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!