Thread by @oldnorthstpol

Today's thread of NC 'early votes' as of 10-24-18 (note 2 different types: by mail & one-stop/in-person).

So far, 789K requests have been made for absentee ballots (both mail & in-person).

Of those, 716K have been returned & accepted (both mail & in-person).

#ncpol #ncvotes

Regarding NC accepted in-person ballots (that will be the majority of absentees): as has been noted over past few days, 2018 seems more of a 'presidential' year than a traditional mid-term.

But, 2018's daily total is beginning to slip behind 2016's daily total

#ncpol #ncvotes

2018's NC accepted absentee in-person ballots is at 93% of where 2016 stood this same day (reminder: one more extra day in 2018 than 2016).

Compared to 2014's final #s, 2018 is now 63% of that mid-term's final tally of a little over 1M absentee in-person ballots

#ncpol #ncvotes

In terms of differences in voter party registration, all 3 major groups (registered Democrat, Republican, & Unaffiliated) are running well ahead of 2014 mid-term numbers, but differences between 2018 & 2016 #s exist by party reg in accepted absentee in-person ballots:

#ncpol

In terms of percentage differences between same day 2018 NC accepted absentee in-person #s and 2016's #s:

reg Dems: down 17%
reg Una: up 2%
reg Rep: up 3%

All party regs have been dropping in %s compared, so we may be seeing the slowing of all voters this week.

#ncpol

In comparison to 2014's mid-term, NC's absentee by mail requests are 98% of 2014's final #s; accepted 2018 absentee by mail ballots are 36%.

2018 NC absentee in-person (both requested & accepted) is 63% of 2014's final #s.

Very likely to exceed 2014 #s overall

#ncpol #ncvotes

In looking at 2018's accepted absentee in-person ballots, registered Democrats continue as plurality of ballots so far:

reg Dem: 43% (above their 38% in NC voter pool %)
reg GOP: 30% (right at same % of voter pool)
reg Una: 27% (below their 31% of voter pool)

#ncpol #ncvotes

In looking at NC's accepted absentee in-person ballots by generational cohorts (defined: pewresearch.org/topics/millenn…):

Mean age so far: 59 YO

Generational cohorts by voter party registration & comparison to 10-20-18 voter pool %s of each cohort:

#ncpol #ncvotes

With NC's 'blue-moon' election (no US Senate or governor contest), major focus is on the state's 13 congressional districts.

#s and %s of ballots from each CD, along with voter party registration %s within each district:

#ncpol #ncvotes

In looking at how NC's 2018 absentee in-person voters participated in 2014, 49% of 2018 voters cast ballots by absentee in-person 4 years ago.

22% voted on Election Day in 2014 (going up)
15% registered after 2014
12% were registered in 2014 but didn't vote

#ncpol #ncvotes

And in breaking down the top 5 areas from the previous chart by voter party registration, by both raw #s and %s within the vote method:

#ncpol #ncvotes

And within the party registration groups as to how each party's voters participated in 2014 (or didn't):

Note party differences in those who have voted 2018 absentee in-person & voted on Election Day in 2014

#ncpol #ncvotes

The gender divide in NC's absentee in-person ballots now mirrors NC's voter registration pool % for both men (45%) and women (53%):

So far, almost half of NC female absentee in-person voters are registered Democrats.

#ncpol #ncvotes

In looking at gender by 'region' within NC's accepted absentee in-person ballots so far:

The 'regions' of NC: urban city voter; suburban voter outside central city but inside urban county; surrounding suburban county voter; rural county voter.

#ncpol #ncvotes

In terms of overall NC 'regions' (urban city voter; suburban voter outside central city but inside urban county; surrounding suburban county voter; rural county voter), their %s of absentee in-person voters so far & voter party registration within each region:

#ncpol #ncvotes

Looking at NC's accepted absentee in-person ballots by voter race & party registration:

Whites are nearly 3/4 of these early votes so far

White reg Dems are overperforming their registration %

Black/African-Americans early voters are behind their voter pool %

#ncpol #ncvotes

The daily totals and %s for NC's accepted absentee in-person ballots by voter race since the start of early voting last Wednesday.

There were limited counties & sites open this past weekend; this weekend will see more across NC.

#ncpol #ncvotes

Daily totals and %s for NC's accepted absentee in-person ballots by voter party registration since the start of early voting last Wednesday:

Again: this past weekend saw limited #s of counties & sites open; this weekend will see more across the state.

#ncpol #ncvotes

So far, the registered voter turnout for all absentee ballot requests is 11% of the 7M+ NC registered voters.

Registered Democrats have a higher turnout rate so far in comparison to reg GOP & unaffiliated, but still early in the process:

#ncpol #ncvotes

The 2018 NC early voters so far (these are requested; next tweet is accepted) & info on their voting history:

'high propensity' voters (who voted in all general elections from 2008-2016)

and

'presidential' voters (only prez year voters but didn't vote in '10 or '14):

#ncpol

And here are the 2018 NC early voters so far (accepted ballots) and their voting history as:

'high propensity' voters (who voted in all general elections from 2008-2016)

and

'presidential' voters (only prez year voters but didn't vote in '10 or '14):

#ncpol #ncvotes

As a reminder: NC voters tend to have particular 'favorites' when it comes to vote methods in past elections: in presidential years (2008, 12, & 16), majority of votes came before Election Day, while in mid-terms (10 & 14), majorities were cast on Election Day.

#ncpol #ncvotes

As an overview of the previous tweet, here are the 2008-2014 comparisons of vote methods by election year and & voter party registration within:

--absentee by mail
--absentee in-person (one-stop)
--on Election Day

#ncpol #ncvote

Here is the 2016 presidential year vote method & voter party registration data, compared to this year's absentee vote methods so far and voter party registration:

note the Dem %s in absentee by mail so far that's bucking the past trends in that vote method

#ncpol #ncvotes

All data for NC's absentee by mail requests & accepted comes from the NC State Board of Elections' website: dl.ncsbe.gov/index.html?pre… (using the 1st file)

Comparisons to voter registration data comes from same agency for 10-20-18 data: dl.ncsbe.gov/index.html?pre…

#ncpol #ncvotes

And for folks interested in the "non-accepted" ballots so far for NC's absentee by mail and in-person (again, this info from the NC State Board of Elections):

#ncpol #ncvotes