Thread by @oldnorthstpol

North Carolina's 'early votes' are on pace for a mid-term record; as of 10-26-18 for absentee by mail & one-stop/in-person:

Over 1M requests have been made;

Of those, 957K of both absentee by mail & onestop/in-person have been returned & accepted.

#ncpol #ncvotes

Regarding NC accepted in-person ballots (that will be the majority of absentees): as has been noted for a few days, 2018 seems more of a 'presidential' year than a traditional mid-term.

But, 2018's daily total is slipping behind 2016's daily total, as expected

#ncpol #ncvotes

2018's NC accepted absentee in-person ballots is at 82% of where 2016 stood this same day (reminder: one more extra day in 2018 than 2016).

Compared to 2014's final #s, 2018 is now 84% of that mid-term's final tally of a little over 1M absentee in-person ballots

#ncpol #ncvotes

In terms of differences in voter party registration, all 3 major groups (registered Democrat, Republican, & Unaffiliated) are running well ahead of 2014 mid-term #s, but all three groups have now dropped behind 2016's same day #s in accepted absentee in-person ballots:

#ncpol

In terms of % differences between same day 2018 NC accepted absentee in-person #s & 2016's #s:

reg Dems: down 24%
reg Una: down 11%
reg Rep: down 14%

All party regs have been dropping in %s compared, so this may be the sign that 1st week rush of early voting is over.

#ncpol

In comparison to 2014's mid-term, NC's absentee by mail requests are 106% of 2014's final #s; accepted 2018 absentee by mail ballots are 46%.

2018 NC absentee in-person (both requested & accepted) is 84% of 2014's final #s.

Very likely to exceed 2014 #s overall

#ncpol #ncvotes

In looking at 2018's accepted absentee in-person ballots, registered Democrats continue as plurality of ballots so far:

reg Dem: 43% (above their 38% in NC voter pool %)
reg GOP: 31% (above their 30% of voter pool)
reg Una: 26% (below their 31% of voter pool)

#ncpol #ncvotes

In looking at NC's accepted absentee in-person ballots by generational cohorts (defined: pewresearch.org/topics/millenn…):

Mean age so far: 59 YO

Generational cohorts by voter party registration & comparison to NC's 10-20-18 voter pool %s for each cohort:

#ncpol #ncvotes

With NC's 'blue-moon' election (no US Senate or governor contest), major focus is on the 13 congressional districts.

#s & %s of ballots from each CD, along with voter party registration %s within each district. #NC13 is only reg GOP-led district so far:

#ncpol #ncvotes

In looking at how NC's 2018 absentee in-person voters participated in 2014, 47% of 2018 voters cast ballots by absentee in-person 4 years ago.

23% voted on Election Day in 2014 (going up)
16% registered after 2014
13% were registered in 2014 but didn't vote

#ncpol #ncvotes

And in breaking down the top 5 areas from the previous chart of 2018's early voters by 2014 vote methods:

by voter party registration, both raw numbers and percentages within the vote method/registration status

#ncpol #ncvotes

And within the party registration groups as to how each party's voters participated in 2014 (or didn't):

Note party differences in those who have voted 2018 absentee in-person & voted on Election Day in 2014

#ncpol #ncvotes

The gender divide in NC's absentee in-person ballots now mirrors NC's voter registration pool % for both men (45%) and women (53%):

Almost half of NC female absentee in-person voters continue to be registered Democrats.

#ncpol #ncvotes

In looking at gender by 'region' and voter party reg within NC's accepted absentee in-person ballots so far:

NC's 'regions': urban city voter; suburban voter outside central city but inside urban county; surrounding suburban county voter; rural county voter.

#ncpol #ncvotes

In terms of overall NC 'regions' (urban city voter; suburban voter outside central city but inside urban county; surrounding suburban county voter; rural county voter):

their %s of absentee in-person voters so far & voter party registration within each region

#ncpol #ncvotes

Looking at NC's accepted absentee in-person ballots by voter race & party registration:

Whites are nearly 3/4 of these early votes so far

White reg Dems are overperforming their registration %

Black/African-Americans early voters slightly behind voter pool %

#ncpol #ncvotes

The daily totals and %s for NC's accepted absentee in-person ballots by voter race since the start of early voting last Wednesday.

There were limited counties & sites open this past weekend; this weekend will see more across NC.

#ncpol #ncvotes

Daily totals and %s for NC's accepted absentee in-person ballots by voter party registration since the start of early voting last Wednesday:

Again: this past weekend saw limited #s of counties & sites open; this weekend will see more across the state.

#ncpol #ncvotes

So far, the registered voter turnout for all absentee ballot requests is almost 15% of the 7M+ NC registered voters.

Registered Democrats have a higher turnout rate so far in comparison to reg GOP & unaffiliated, but still almost another week in EV process:

#ncpol #ncvotes

Have a fairly busy Friday (trip to Raleigh to be on @NCSPINtweets) but will continue analysis later today with more info on NC early votes. Thanks for following and the interest. --MB

Picking up from this morning--2018 NC early voters (these are requested ballots) & info on their voting history:

'high propensity' voters (who voted in all general elections from 2008-2016)

&

'presidential' voters (only prez year voters but didn't vote in '10 or '14):

#ncpol

And here are the 2018 NC early voters so far (accepted ballots) and their voting history as:

'high propensity' voters (who voted in all general elections from 2008-2016)

and

'presidential' voters (only prez year voters but didn't vote in '10 or '14):

#ncpol #ncvotes

As a reminder: NC voters tend to have particular 'favorites' when it comes to vote methods in past elections: in presidential years (2008, 12, & 16), majority of votes came before Election Day, while in mid-terms (10 & 14), majorities were cast on Election Day.

#ncpol #ncvotes

As an overview of the previous tweet, here are the 2008-2014 comparisons of vote methods by election year and & voter party registration within:

--absentee by mail
--absentee in-person (one-stop)
--on Election Day

#ncpol #ncvote

Here is 2016's presidential year vote method & voter party registration data, compared to this year's absentee vote methods so far and voter party registration:

note the Dem %s in absentee by mail so far that's bucking the past trends in that vote method

#ncpol #ncvotes