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Nate Silver @NateSilver538
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Yeah, been hearing this a *lot*, the idea that the House outlook has shifted back toward the GOP (even if D's are still favored) and/or that Dems' ceiling has become lower. To be blunt, I just don't think it accurately reflects the balance of the publicly-available evidence.
To be generous to this view, maybe it's an OK way of reminding people about *uncertainty*. How deeply a potential wave could penetrate into districts that voted by Trump for a lot, but where the D is showing signs of being competitive, is a big source of debate/uncertainty.
But *uncertainty* is not the same thing as *movement* and there hasn't been a lot of *movement* in the House. In fact, the House forecast is probably the steadiest we've ever made at 538. It just hasn't changed much (unlike the Senate, any wobbles around Kavanaugh were minor).
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