A few thoughts on where the @CDU president succession race stands at the end of a crazy week, really an attempt to synthesise what we already know and do not know and what chatter and speculation would currently suggest:
1/ We have 3 candidates that shape the structure of the race as follows: @_A_K_K_ is Merkel's heir apparent and supposedly somewhere on the left of the spectrum. @jensspahn covers the right flank of the party with a focus on migration. And #Merz is the unknown on the centre lane.
2/ First, @a_k_k_: She has made no announcements this week but will do so next week. Tempting assumption is that she will be a Merkel reincarnation. But she will need to differentiate herself in more than one way to appeal to the whole party. So a spot to watch come next week.
3/ Second, @jensspahn: In a fast-scribbled manifesto in @faznet, he centred his bid on the migration question. Apparently he sees his only chance in making the campaign into a judgment about Merkel's 2015 decision. But very unlikely that the party will go for this frame.
4/ Third, #Merz: As said elsewhere, it's a trap to extrapolate his current positions from his statements 15 yrs ago. He will likely position himself as the one able to unify the party - having the two others on both sides will help here and he already has conservate credentials.
5/ In general, one should not overestimate the policy component - the identity of the @CDU rests on governing the country and on being a huge big-tent party. So whoever offers the most promising way back to 40% wins, not who breaks the most spectacularly with Merkel's policies.
6/ In addition, most delegates will be aware that in the end a coalition with the Greens is the most likely outcome of the next election - the SPD will not go into another GroKo and the FDP is very unlikely to benefit from a rejuvenated CDU - and is already at a pretty low level.
7/ Both elements imply that rather than massively moving to the right on many fronts, the party will want to go back to just covering a larger spectrum of positions. This is also why I would assume that @jensspahn has very little chance in winning.
8/ And this is also why it is not a given that the centre-left will benefit from any of this as some insinuate, not even from a #Merz victory - rather it is likely that the SPD will really come under pressure and back into the spotlight when the CDU has sorted out its house.
