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Lucas Guttenberg @lucasguttenberg
, 8 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
1/A few rather anticlimactic observations on 🇮🇹:
- There is no need for Italy and the @EU_Commission to agree.
- Nothing will immediately follow from this whole circus now.
- The real showdown will happen next summer - most likely after the EP elections.
Some details:
2/ First, for all the macro details, read the excellent analysis by @gregclaeys.
Second, it is a fallacy to think that 🇪🇺 and 🇮🇹 have to agree now. If the Italian govt refuses to revise its plan, the Commission will report this and its objections to the Eurogroup. And that's it.
3/ The DBP procedure is an early-warning system for potential future breaches of the rules. The Commission has no leverage to force Italy (or any government) to revise its plan according to its objections. It can just signal its objections to the public and the markets.
4/ The two tools for escalation in the case of Italy - a step-up in the preventive arm or an opening of the Excessive Deficit Procedure based on the debt rule - can both not be triggered based on plans, but only on outcomes. (Check out the vade mecum) ec.europa.eu/info/sites/inf…
5/ This is also what this year's recommendation to Italy says, which had assessed whether an EDP based on the debt-rule should be opened: "The Commission will reassess compliance on the basis of the ex-post data for 2018 to be notified in Spring 2019."
ec.europa.eu/info/sites/inf…
6/ So the real discussion will start when hard data for 2018 are there in early May 2019. And then assessment takes another month. So I would be very surprised if anything happened before the European elections - rather this will be moved to June.
7/ This is not to mean that the current confrontation does not matter - it does for markets and it does for the credibility of the rules. But the procedure we are dealing with now allows for a rather boring outcome: Agree to disagree. Next summer, this will not be so easy anymore
7/Addendum: I wouldn’t completely exclude that the COM could find a way to open a debt-based EDP if it *really* wanted to. That’s in the end a political question.
What matters though is that there is absolutely no direct or automatic consequence of no agreement on the Italian DBP
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1/The election of @_A_K_K_ , the announcements of @EmmanuelMacron, the possible deal between @EU_Commission and Italy - what does this all mean for Eurozone reform?
In short: Nothing. Because the ship will sail tomorrow and will not come back any time soon.

A thread pre-#EuCo:
2/ The Euro Summit will sign off tomorrow on next steps in 3 areas of Eurozone reform: Banking union, crisis management, and fiscal policy. Rather than kicking the can down the road again, it will define the political perimeter in each of these areas for the foreseeable future.
3/ On banking union, the summit will adopt the rules for using the backstop for the Single Resolution Fund and the conditions under which the backstop can see the light of day before 2024. The ESM treaty will be changed accordingly in the near future.
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A few thoughts on where the @CDU president succession race stands at the end of a crazy week, really an attempt to synthesise what we already know and do not know and what chatter and speculation would currently suggest:
1/ We have 3 candidates that shape the structure of the race as follows: @_A_K_K_ is Merkel's heir apparent and supposedly somewhere on the left of the spectrum. @jensspahn covers the right flank of the party with a focus on migration. And #Merz is the unknown on the centre lane.
2/ First, @a_k_k_: She has made no announcements this week but will do so next week. Tempting assumption is that she will be a Merkel reincarnation. But she will need to differentiate herself in more than one way to appeal to the whole party. So a spot to watch come next week.
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Nothing to see here. Nope. It's not like the #EU is under the control of the #globalist #cabal or anything. And they certainly wouldn't embrace fascism as a means to achieve their leftist ends....right?

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001/ [article content in this tweet series 001-180 reproduced with permission from Martin Howe QC of Lawyers for Britain @lawyers4britain]
#quote "Leaving the EU on WTO terms: pulling down the barriers to world trade
Introduction: why prices will FALL after Brexit, not rise" /002
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1/ Over the last few weeks, myself, @JasonJHunter and others have laid out the regulatory disruptions UK-EU trade will face under a purely No-Deal Brexit.

My thread:
One of Jason's threads:

How should you treat this information?
2/ Obviously, you must decide if what we lay out is credible.

For my part, my analysis relied on a plain reading of the EU's Brexit Preparatory Notices.

These are official communications the EU Commission put out, formally advising business of what to accept.
3/ Now, you could accept that we've interpreted the documents correctly but still reject that what's in those documents will actually come to pass or be enforced.

There are a number of ways you could arrive at that position in good faith. Let's discuss them.
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Hello all, as this can be a crucial day for the new (populist) #Italy government I am now going to tweet a short thread on it, focusing especially on the (almost ready) M5S-LEGA agenda. At least 70 billions of additional debt are expected. How will Europe react? THREAD 🇮🇹
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