YouGov has Dems with an 89% chance to win the House. (They didn't list the probability in their write-up but you can calculate it from the chart.)
I think their range of outcomes is too narrow (and I'm not super in love with MRP) but there's something pretty interesting here…
I think their range of outcomes is too narrow (and I'm not super in love with MRP) but there's something pretty interesting here…
...namely, that they show Democrats winning 30 seats (they need 23 for the majority) with a popular vote win of "only" 5.5 percentage points. Suggests the breakeven point for Democrats (when they become more likely than not to win the House) is a 4-5 point popular vote win.
People have been using a 7-point popular vote win as a benchmark for D majority, but that's *probably* out of date, and a little too high. Doesn't account for PA redistricting, GOP retirements, Democratic $$, and other ground-level factors that have helped Democrats.
Our Classic and Deluxe models have the breakeven point at 5.7. Our Lite model, on the other hand, expects Dems to waste a lot of votes in blue districts and has it at 7.2. YouGov looks like they have it at 4-5. So, there's considerable uncertainty. But 7 may be on the high side.
