Profile picture
Brian Klaas @brianklaas
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
2018 is slated to be about a 7.2% popular vote margin of victory for Democrats. For comparison:

1994: R+7.1%
2006: D+8.0%
2008: D+10.6%
2010: R+7.2%
2014: R+5.7%

Anyone debate that 1994 or 2010 was a wave? Same margin. Gerrymandering is the main difference. Via @SamWangPhD
The narrative that this was some disappointing night for Democrats is historically illiterate. Democrats made huge gains. The full impact of Democratic gains was slightly muted by gerrymandering (House) and an absurdly unfavorable & nearly unprecedented Senate map. Still a wave.
As @SamWangPhD & others have shown, gerrymandering got much worse after the 2010 redistricting, resulting in some of the most skewed maps in modern history. This has caused people to wrongly look exclusively at seat numbers, when the raw vote totals are telling us something major
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to Brian Klaas
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @brianklaas see all

Profile picture
Coup in Gabon happening right now
This coup (or coup attempt, depending on how it shakes out) continues to affirm one of the most clear-cut lessons for dictators who want to stay in power: never get sick and never leave the country. Bongo is recovering from a stroke in Morocco.
There are at least 80 US troops who were just deployed to Gabon; Trump sent a letter to Congress on Friday informing them of the deployment to help with the DRC, which is facing a lot of volatility around elections. Gabon is an oil-rich country in West Central Africa.
Read 3 tweets
Profile picture
Anyone else remember when the @nytimes showed credible evidence that the president committed massive tax fraud? Or when his own lawyer implicated him in orchestrating a criminal conspiracy? Or when the @WSJ provided additional compelling evidence he broke campaign finance law?...
...Wow it didn’t fit in one tweet. Or when he admitted to Lester Holt that he obstructed justice in firing Comey? Or when he apparently dictated a false statement to obscure attempted collusion with Russia at Trump Tower? Or when his (oh goodness I’m going to need a third tweet)
Or when his campaign chairman pleaded guilty to conspiracy against the US? And when his deputy campaign chairman, national security adviser, foreign policy adviser, and personal lawyer all became convicted felons? Because I remember. And the president shouldn’t be above the law.
Read 3 tweets
Profile picture
1. This is the most important election in modern US history. America’s character & trajectory will be decided today. Will we reject Trump’s bigotry or encourage it? Will we stop his authoritarian demagoguery or fuel it? Democracy & decency are on the ballot. We need you to vote.
2. Today is a referendum on Trumpism. In 2016, many people thought they’d roll the dice with someone who promised to “shake things up.” But now there are no excuses. We know who he is and what he represents. Now we either accelerate Trumpism or stop its forward progress.
3. Democracy is threatened—from a wannabe despot in the White House. Attacking the press with Stalinist rhetoric. Scapegoating minorities. Nepotism. Corruption. Politicizing rule of law. Calling to jail political opponents. Pardons for political allies. An assault on truth itself
Read 15 tweets

Related threads

Profile picture
Some more context on the wave we built. The popular vote margin in the House overall will be ~7% - the same as the Republican revolution in 1994 and the Tea Party rebellion in 2010. The only reason we wind up with a 60+ seat gain is because of massive gerrymandering post 2010.
But at ~30 seat gain is enough. Two years ago, people were shocked when we said we'd thought we could take the House. The Republicans built a giant freaking wall based on voter suppression, purging, and gerrymandering, but we overcame it.
Trump lost 2016 by 2 points. He lost last night by 7 points. MI, WI, and PA - 3 of his states in 2016 - elected Dem Senators and Govs last night. Kris Kobach and Scott Walker lost. We created half a dozen new state trifectas and broke their trifectas and supermajorities.
Read 5 tweets
Profile picture
The NYT currently projects a national popular-vote margin of D+9.2%. The largest popular margin since 2008, larger than waves of 1994, 2006, 2010, 2014.

1994: R+7.1%
2006: D+8.0%
2008: D+10.6%
2010: R+7.2%
2014: R+5.7%

By historical standards, this a popular wave.
So why was there any suspense about who would control the House? Why isn't this seen as a landslide? One word: gerrymandering.

Under redistricting principles that favored neither party, Democrats would have been about a dozen seats closer to control.

nytimes.com/2013/02/03/opi…
There have been some victories in courts: Pennsylvania, Florida, and Virginia.
nydailynews.com/opinion/ny-ope…

Two more gerrymanders - by R's in North Carolina, by D's in Maryland - are moving through courts.

But there's much more work to do, state by state.
prospect.org/article/states…
Read 5 tweets
Profile picture
Ignore the polls and get out there and #Vote on November 6th. Relying on polling is a relic of a time gone by.
I’m not saying looking at @FiveThirtyEight’s model and charts and stuff isn’t cool, because it is and provides some insight. But no matter what the numbers say, it’s most certainly NEVER an excuse to not #Vote because you feel your peeps are a “lock”
Need nothing further than to point to 2016. Which by the way, @FiveThirtyEight didn’t really have wrong, but the “selected not elected” mindset existed before 2016. Why else would over 100 million people choose NOT to participate in their civic duty to choose their leaders.
Read 21 tweets
Profile picture
Massive Electronic #ElectionFraud Put Trump Into The Presidency, As Reported By Every #ElectionForensics Scientist.
Shhhh!
(We’re All Supposed To Keep It Secret)
#unhackthevote
@mikefarb1
mintpressnews.com/donald-trump-w…
2)”Since votes are counted unobservably in the pitch-dark of cyberspace& our voting equipment& programming are essentially off-limits to inspection, election forensics comes down..to indirect measures of patterns& anomalies, from which red flags may emerge to suggest “problems”.
3)”Unlike previous eras, exit polls — or at least those in competitive elections bearing national significance — in the era of computerized voting have been so habitually “off” in the same direction (to the “left” of the vote counts) that...”
Read 21 tweets
Profile picture
Despite big wins on election day for #Democrats, a small group of people continue to argue for major changes to the party through the Dem Unity Commission. Some proposed changes are getting rid of superdelegates and more caucuses. Let's discuss what these changes could mean /1
One proposed change is to remove super delegates from the primary nominating process for president. Supers are mostly elected representatives and major party members who can vote for whomever they want at the convention /2 dailykos.com/stories/2008/2…
Super delegates have never overturned the popular vote but do provided a fail-safe option in case the party needs them (Trump anyone?). They also help diversity in delegates because people dont need to compete w/ elected reps to go to the convention /3
Read 17 tweets
Profile picture
Je vais raconter dans ce fil comment se passent les dernières minutes de vote et le dépouillement à l'école Cervantes #Référendum #Catalunya
Dès que quelqu'un arrive pour voter, haie d'honneur et cris de "un votant". Et des applaudissements !
La président du @parlament_cat @ForcadellCarme est venue au bureau de vote. Elle a salué tout les scrutateurs
Read 33 tweets

Trending hashtags

#NVpol #FlipitBlue2018 #SaveDemocracy #AbolishTrump #Democrats #gavin #Connecticut #Pedovores #unhackthevote #Liberals #NV1 #Trump #Catalunya #Republicans #NV03 #vote #Peaceful #StopTheCaravan #BlueWave2018 #Nelson #2018Midterms #IllegalAliens #NorthLasVegas #Parkland #Colorado

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member and get exclusive features!

Premium member ($30.00/year)

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!