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David Henig @DavidHenigUK
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
So we might hear a lot in the coming days about the PM 'betraying' Brexit and her Lancaster House speech. It will be powerful, but wrong - my timely latest. prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/burst…
I'll be around Westminster tomorrow morning if anyone wants to show me 500 pages of text
Meanwhile they say good comedy is all in the timing...
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Am bored of reading the conventional wisdom that the EU could not renegotiate Brexit, and to make this case will borrow the wisdom of one of our most experienced MEPs @RCorbettMEP - this is how it COULD happen (and why it probably won't)
There is no more important Brexit job for MPs in the coming two months than to build consensus - something those more astute than the PM realised some time ago. Future relationship talks with a split Parliament could not succeed.
(The @RCorbettMEP article extracted earlier - labourlist.org/2019/01/richar…)
Read 3 tweets
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The Government may have informally asked the EU about an Article 50 Extension - we presume not for any serious reason (no-deal prep, election, referendum) but in the vague hope this somehow helps the PM's deal pass Parliament
Under three months from leaving the EU by law and we have a Government without a plan.
It is not clear that the UK Government has learned anything about negotiating with the EU over the past two and a half years
Read 4 tweets
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A modest step forward by those MPs supporting a 'Norway' Brexit - they have a better name than Norway+, we now have Common Market 2.0, also breaking the unwritten Brexit rule that all proposals must be +++ d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/stephenkinnock…
There's not much new here, but mention of our freedom to set agriculture rules doesn't sit well with commitments on the Irish border unless assuming Northern Ireland does not in fact have that freedom, and Irish Sea checks
Biggest problem for EEA supporters remains the opposition of both the Labour leadership and the referendum campaigners. Although a majority of MPs could probably live with an EEA solution it is hard to see us getting there
Read 3 tweets

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So @theresa_may got a an absolute kicking tonight.

She made her pitch to the the EU leaders and they basically said no.

Compare and contrast. Ugly. #Brexit
@theresa_may This is not pretty reading.

In Para 3 the EU rip out reassurance that Backstop is "not a desirable outcome for the Union" and add a bit on the 'integrity of the single market.

Para 4 the add is designed to remind UK that trust cuts both ways, as does this deal. /2
@theresa_may Then the really bad part.

Para 5 was controversial part even before the night began (the Irish hated it). It promised to examine whether "any further reassurance can be provided".

In the final it was ripped out completely and replaced with a pledge to ramp up no-deal preps./3
Read 8 tweets
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So @DominicRaab and Brexiteers think a defeat for @theresa_may
on Dec 11 will allow the UK to renegotiate the Irish backstop, specifically the right to leave unilaterally.

Here's why, after chats with both sides, that ain't happening IMO. 1/thread

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@DominicRaab @theresa_may First Raab thinks a PM that shows some "will and resolve" can get the EU to change its mind.

But his own experience must tell him different. Remember his own failed tilt at @simoncoveney demanding three-month exit clause? Fail. /2

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@DominicRaab @theresa_may @simoncoveney But even allowing for disingenuousness, there are 3 reasons why the EU is not bluffing when it says it won't renegotiate the backstop to give the UK a unilateral walkout clause.

1. They actually want to avoid a hard border
2. Political solidarity
3. They don't buy UK bluff /3
Read 20 tweets
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The disastrous headlines for the Prime Minister this morning are the product of 2 years in which hard truths have been shrouded in meaningless rhetoric, & actively hidden. Those hard truths are being exposed now - as they always would have been. #Brexit. /1
Corbyn has failed to get close to those hard truths, failed to grasp the reality of the stark choices ahead and so failed to provide leadership both for the Labour Remainers and for Labour Leavers. Burying one’s head in the Brexit sand doesn’t make the problem go away. /2
When Corbyn says “Not really, no”, he should say which specific part of Jo Johnson’s detailed analysis he disagrees with and why. Where exactly does he think Johnson has got it wrong? Or does he agree with his analysis & say let’s do it anyway? /3
Read 4 tweets
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Brexit is the backstop; the backstop is #Brexit.

After 3 days in Belfast, talking to all sides, here's what I've learned - on the business and the politics of this deal. And its viability.

1/Thread
First the business/technical aspects of how a backstop would work.

I talked to business lobby groups, Stephen Kelly from @ManufacturingNI fresh back from talks with Barnier. And bosses of big companies.

The are surprisingly sanguine. /2

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@ManufacturingNI If the backstop emerges as the British want (and that is still an 'if') it would look as follows:

- all-UK in a temporary customs Union
- Northern Ireland only in Single Market for goods, via devolution
- no checks GB-NI
- 'de-dramatised checks on regs NI-GB

/3
Read 26 tweets
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The 'third way' is now the new thing in the #Brexit debate. Like No.10 suddenly discovered something last weekend after two years of trying.

So here's a long read on why there are no magic bullets to fix the customs conundrum - my latest

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
On the upside, a 'third way' carries implicit acknowledgement that the first two ways (the MaxFax and the New Customs Partnership) cannot solve the need for a border in the Irish Sea, if May wants to leave Customs Union and Single Market.

So what might the 'third way' be? /2
It will be a 'news customs arrangement' (which is code for a customs union, probably sugared by the idea that it's 'temporary' and only a bridge to the 'future' when technology (block chain blah) works and the 'new customs partnership) comes to fruition. /3
Read 10 tweets
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A little thread on what’s awaiting us in #Brexit matters into 2018. Looking into the ⚗️ is maybe foolish but I’ll have a go. (1/16)
Let’s put ourselves in May 2018. System for the Brexit transition period - supposed to be agreed by March 2018 - has been delayed. (2/16)
The whole thing stumbled because no one could agree what a “standstill transition” meant or how, legally, to do it. (3/16)
Read 16 tweets

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