A little thread on what’s awaiting us in #Brexit matters into 2018. Looking into the ⚗️ is maybe foolish but I’ll have a go. (1/16)
Let’s put ourselves in May 2018. System for the Brexit transition period - supposed to be agreed by March 2018 - has been delayed. (2/16)
The whole thing stumbled because no one could agree what a “standstill transition” meant or how, legally, to do it. (3/16)
Third countries like 🇨🇦 weighed into debate, demanding same access to the EU services market as UK would get during transition. (4/16)
🇲🇦 & 🇦🇪 kicked up a stink over 🇬🇧 demand that 🇬🇧 ✈️ would be treated as they had been in the 🇪🇺 when flying to non-🇪🇺 destinations. (5/16)
Was no solution in sight about what to do about 750 agreements 🇪🇺 has with rest of 🗺, or what role 🇬🇧 would keep in 🇪🇺 agencies. (6/16)
The 🇪🇺 demand that 🇬🇧 apply the entire acquis drew the ire of Brexiteers who insisted “European Union” be removed from 🇬🇧 passports. (7/16)
Meanwhile 🚗 firms, ✈️ companies, 🧀 makers & 💶 banks were calling more and more vociferously for economic clarity for post-29.3.2019. (8/16)
Knowing that any 🇬🇧 exit deal would need 6 months to ratify, by May 2018 with no deal on transition… the 🇪🇺 side is getting 😬 too. (9/16)
So what would happen if this were to come to pass? (10/16)
Waste more time on trying to fix how transition would work? (11/16)
I doubt it. Were this all to come to pass then calls to extend Article 50 would grow and grow. (12/16)
Yes it’d mean 🇬🇧 has to stay in 🇪🇺 institutions longer. Would have to elect MEPs. But that’s a minor 🤕 compared to transition. (13/16)
Brexiteers would scream. But what can they do? Down the government and end up with Corbyn? They’d not dare. (14/16)
So I reckon by late spring 2018 we’re going to be talking about extending Article 50. (15/16)
(Background for this thread from this prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/the-b… by @jonlis1) (16/16)
