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Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes
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Tucked away in this week's Sunday Times is a fascinating evolving brexit compromise which I missed...

@NickBoles signalled he is modifying his "Norway for Now" plan. By - more or less - dropping the "for now" - removing any hard deadline

thetimes.co.uk/past-six-days/…

So:
Policy :
- Boles now suggests staying in EEA, EFTA and "customs continuity"
- Tell EFTA states 1 option for future is EEA/EFTA permanently
- Now accepts keeping almost all Withdrawal Agreement, meaning only future relationship changes, easing speedy negotiation if May plan fails
Negotiating bottom line:

- By accepting far more of the EU structures that Theresa May's plan, dropping the deadline and by accepting much of the Withdrawal Agreement, it's not hard to imagine the EU finding parts of this attractive.
Politics:
- This plan wont work for hard brexiteers
- BUT Boles plan COULD now form basis of x-party compromise that maybe brings Lab/SNP/ some Tories on board too.
- You'd tell brexiteers UK is out of CFP CAP, has emergency immigraiton brake, no MEPs but consultation mechanism
Domestic bottom line:

Boles is negotiating a single market / customs union option - closer to the EU than TM plan - that can possibly get x-party support and his plan cd become live and relevant if Theresa May's deal is rejected.

It's a plan for everyone but @StandUp4Brexit
But - as ever - much of this is guesswork, projection and imagination. Reporting is not predicting. Who knows what happens next.
BUT the flaw, arguably, is:

It does need a prime minister who will implement it. And given TM and the manifesto, it’s hard to see it being her. And it’s tricky to see Tory membership voting for someone keeping SM and CU membership
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Times exc

What next on brexit?

In today’s Times I do a roundup of what people across Westminster - and beyond - are saying at the start of the new term.

A thread below on my conclusions, including details of “Operation Figleaf”

thetimes.co.uk/article/62a2f4…
1. The meaningful vote is set to be either on Tue Jan 15 or Wed Jan 16.

A decision hasn’t been made yet

It partly depends on whether the Commons sits next Friday and Tories have a three line whip to attend the brexit debate - which is unusual
2. Theresa May wants to focus briefing on domestic issues - the NHS? - this weekend

I’m told one advanced plan is for May to appear on the @AndrewMarr9 on BBC 1 on Sunday to launch the 10 year NHS plan, spelling out how the ££ announced over the summer will be spent.
Read 14 tweets
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NEW

European leaders Varadkar and Merkel discuss how to help May to get through Withdrawal Agreement in a 40 minute call

"It was an opportunity to kind of brainstorm a bit as to what we could do to assist prime minister May" - Varadkar
Varadkar suggests that clarifications, not changes, on the table from the EU side

"We are happy to offer reassurance and guarantees to the United Kingdom but not reassurances and guarantees that contradict or change what was agreed back in November"
Varadkar suggests next 2 weeks key

“This is something we will have to see develop over the next week or two. Bear in mind the UK government has approved this agreement. The difficulty is UK government appears unable at this point in time to secure ratification from the Commons"
Read 3 tweets
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FCO announcement:

The UK government and its allies are holding responsible elements of the Chinese government for an extensive cyber campaign targeting commercial secrets around the world.
Along with its allies, the UK has announced that a group known as APT 10 acted on behalf of the Chinese Ministry of State Security to carry out a malicious cyber campaign targeting intellectual property and sensitive commercial data in Europe, Asia and the US.
"This campaign shows that elements of the Chinese government are not upholding the commitments China made directly to the UK in a 2015 bilateral agreement. It is also inconsistent with G20 commitments"
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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Ahem. Sorry to intrude on today's Westminster drama but....

A faction of the Tory Party is trying to unseat @theresa_may over the the Irish backstop #Brexit

But here is why it isn't going away. Whatever happens. Deal or no deal. 1/Thread
@theresa_may First, the simple politics.

The ERG hates the backstop. They want a unilateral exit clause - but the more they talk about that, the more the EU and Irish are going to cling to the need for a backstop that guarantees no return to a hard border. /2
@theresa_may But let us say, for sake of argument, that the ERG gets its way.

The brave new PM (Raab, Boris, DD or whoever) rides into Brussels with an ultimatum: it's the deal-minus-backstop, or No deal.

And against all the odds and predictions of smart alecs like me, the EU caves... /3
Read 20 tweets
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1) Corbyn, FoM and the reason #Brexit lives - a rant
Apologies but I'm really pretty peeved at the moment, especially after Twitter events in the last few days

This comment appeared in a scoop on Len McCluskey, and it helps explain what's really happening in Labour on #Brexit
2) In this, a senior Labour figure, Len McCluskey, talks about "legitimate concerns" on immigration and "exploitation" of those people, then goes on to give examples of wage impacts
Yes, he wants to end exploitation by taking away the agency of the exploited
3) the logic goes "immigrants are being exploited, so lets deal with that not by tackling the exploiters, but by locking the victims in their own country"

This is a professed socialist speaking

It's also part of the reason why Brexit is still alive - Corbyn wants to end FoM
Read 10 tweets
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So @DominicRaab and Brexiteers think a defeat for @theresa_may
on Dec 11 will allow the UK to renegotiate the Irish backstop, specifically the right to leave unilaterally.

Here's why, after chats with both sides, that ain't happening IMO. 1/thread

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@DominicRaab @theresa_may First Raab thinks a PM that shows some "will and resolve" can get the EU to change its mind.

But his own experience must tell him different. Remember his own failed tilt at @simoncoveney demanding three-month exit clause? Fail. /2

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@DominicRaab @theresa_may @simoncoveney But even allowing for disingenuousness, there are 3 reasons why the EU is not bluffing when it says it won't renegotiate the backstop to give the UK a unilateral walkout clause.

1. They actually want to avoid a hard border
2. Political solidarity
3. They don't buy UK bluff /3
Read 20 tweets
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Get your brain into gear this morning with this long read from @ChloeFarand and myself for @DeSmogUK on how US libertarians and fossil fuel interests are infiltrating the UK's #Brexit debate and pushing for environmental deregulation desmog.co.uk/2018/11/18/mat…

Here's a tldr THREAD
The story centres around a power couple in Brexit politics, Matthew and Sarah Elliott. Matthew was chief of Vote Leave and still has fingers in lots of Brexit pies. Sarah is chair of Republicans overseas, and used to work for fossil fuel magnates the Koch brothers.
In the US, the couple have strong ties to the #Kochtopus network and libertarian Trump-funder Robert Mercer. In the UK, they have strong ties to the remnants of the Leave campaign, and a network of groups lobbying for mass deregulation post-Brexit based out of #TuftonStreet
Read 18 tweets
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1. So if reports are correct it looks like Mrs May is going to go with a customs union as her next move along with those rules necessary to keep the trucks rolling. No doubt this is going to upset the #Brexit Taliban. (thread)
2. As ever she's got it ass backwards where the the differences then between NI and mainland will be more profound than if we'd stayed in the EEA and ditched the customs union. This is what happens when you equate customs controls with customs unions.
3. So the plan, if we can call it a plan is a Turkey Plus sort of arrangement - or maybe the Jersey Option. Whatever ti is, it certainly is turkey - but it's bordering on workable which is closer than we've been before. It will probably fall over on the details.
Read 19 tweets
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More on the slow death of a dream. Telegraph #Brexit briefing is softening up the faithful for the inevitable permanent fudge, hinting at another five years in the customs union (and, necessarily, in the single market). This ‘interim period’ would, in practice, never end. 1/10
So the resolution of the Cabinet squabble over future customs arrangements is, “customs partnership and *then* #maxfac” so the government can do what it does best: avoid making the choice. 2/10
But UK and EU tariffs will not diverge in practice because of the preposterous tracking requirements this would trigger under the customs partnership. Fox can’t sign trade deals until this works, which it won’t - and no one will even try if it is merely an interim. 3/10
Read 11 tweets

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