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Alberto Nardelli @AlbertoNardelli
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
EU27 meeting of ambassadors has ended. Diplomats told no word yet from London whether UK ministers have given greenlight to the deal. Diplomats also told that substance of the Northern Ireland backstop is the previously reported three options to pick by July 2020
If there is a deal in the UK this evening the following will happen:

- joint Barnier-Raab presser
- Barnier will recommend Tusk call a special EUCO
- work continues on docs
- EU27 ambos meet Fri/Sat
- TBD: EU ministers meeting on Monday
- Tue: full text on future relationship
After that, also next week: EU27 sherpa meeting.

EU27 diplomats have also been told that the Brexit EUCO (25 Nov.) will only be to approve the text/s because European Council president Donald Tusk doesn’t want a drafting discussion/debate among leaders
Crucially, all this if green light arrives from the UK. If that isn't forthcoming, the December EUCO (13-14 Dec.) would be the last possibility for a Brexit deal.
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Brexit. Things are getting worse.

1. The withdrawal agreement is needed regardless of the shape of the future relationship. The withdrawal agreement on the table, including the backstop, will not be renegotiated. EU27 cannot be clearer on this point – and this is the key point.
2. Throughout these negotiations, so many problems have been created by N10’s inability & unwillingness to set realistic expectations, explain tradeoffs and communicate clearly. As the PM runs out of road, the confusion over the withdrawal agreement is the latest example
3. The political declaration allows for a full spectrum of future options, but it is not clear what kind of relationship the UK wants. This will require a proper debate on tradeoffs (and years of negotiation). However, whatever that option: you need the withdrawal agreement
Read 7 tweets
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About last night:

1) May went to the meeting seeking legally-binded assurances with half-baked proposals to placate hard Brexiteers & DUP

These have been rejected repeatedly for obvious reasons. Backstop is an insurance policy not “a trap.” Not EU27 problem many MPs ignore this
2) May was asked by several leaders, and, I am told, most emphatically by Chancellor Merkel: 'what is it that you want?'

The prime minister was unable to provide an answer to this question with any precision.
That is where May is at in a nutshell: Nearly two years after triggering article 50, the UK does not have an answer to the question, "what do you want?"

There are also concerns that the UK – across the political spectrum – has no idea what kind of future relationship it wants.
Read 7 tweets
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EUCO draft Brexit conclusions: I understand that paragraph 5 (EU stands ready to examine whether any further assurances can be provided..) has gone.
Par. 1, which wasn't in square brackets, is of course unchanged: "The Union stands by this agreement and intends to proceed with its ratification. It is not open for renegotiation."
Par 2 unchanged: EU reiterates wish for 'as close as possible partnership.." 'stands ready to embark on prep immediately after signature of WA to ensure negotiations can start asap after withdrawal'. Understand 27 discussed starting prep work on future deal as soon as UK ratifies
Read 12 tweets

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Thread. Retweet to ensure your MP reads this.
A summary of 20 points for MPs & Lords to consider while they listen to the debate & before they vote on the Withdrawal Agreement aka the Robbins Surrender.
1. “Our choice, we will decide". We didn't vote for a deal. We voted to leave
2. We voted Leave twice. We confirmed that at the GE 2017 with 85% of the votes for parties backing what has come to be called a "hard brexit". The party pushing Remain (Lib Dems) did not do well.
3. The original Withdrawal Agreement was written in German by Sabine Weyand -approved by Martin Selmayr. Olly Robbins, as a neo-latter-day marxist and arch EU federalist nodded.
Read 20 tweets
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Second part of my "Oh god do I really need to pay attention to Brexit now?" thread, mostly for Americans who have enough to worry about at home.
So it’s now June 2016. Cameron has lost the referendum; Cameron leaves. After a summer of chaos Theresa May becomes PM by default. She was a Remain supporter but now she tells everyone she’ll deliver Brexit. Since then, everything has continued to be a gigantic mess.
The core problems haven’t changed: 1) People who voted to Leave were sold a bunch of lies about Europe; 2) the UK will suffer serious economic harm if we go through with Brexit; 3) many politicians realise that Brexit will be a disaster but are scared of the Leave majority.
Read 19 tweets
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Ministers tell me that if @theresa_may puts version of Withdrawal Agreement and Northern Ireland backstop currently insisted upon by Brussels to Cabinet tomorrow, there is big danger cabinet will reject it. "I don't understand why EU27 would take the risk of a no-deal Brexit...
"...based on this issue", said the minister. "It does not make sense to me". The minister was referring to the provisions in the draft Withdrawal Agreement that would make it impossible for the UK to get out of a customs union without there being a theoretical...
...possibility of Northern Ireland alone then being in the customs union and single market. That would be seen by Tory and DUP unionists as making real their worst nightmare, namely a new legal border down the Irish Sea between Great Britain and Northern Ireland...
Read 4 tweets
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Air boxing by top #UK officials is amazing. Who punching at? Unlike in London, #Brexit never been much fight in Brussels, more lament. When some urged penalty in financial settlement, EU ignored & just tabbed up #'s. Citizen rights a 2-way street. Other stuff mainly logistical..
Point again is not to take any side, but merely point out Brussels has had consistent principles, goals & negotiating positions from the start. London still has no consensus on final objective. No one I know in #EU has advocated for "no deal" but some in #UK actually do that...
Have had many many long conversations w/ top London colleagues. Am very conscious of all arguments & concerns on #UK side, incl over Northern Ireland. But even in no deal scenario, #UK will end up facing exact same choice on future relationship w/ EU as now, but w/o transition...
Read 4 tweets
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The #EU decision to trigger "nuclear option" #article7 against Poland is extremely awkward for UK and bad news for a deeply divided EU leadership that lost its head when Macron got elected. A 1/thread

telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/12/2…
First. The problem for Mrs May, both immediate and longer term.

1. The UK has invested huge amount of diplomatic capital in expanding UK-Polish relationship after #Brexit

German MEP on recent visit said Polish officials joking about sheer number of UK ministers who visited/2
They sent 150 Lightdragoons for Nato trip-wire, started Belvedere Forum and even deployed heavy weaponry (Wills n Kate) in the Summer.

Tomorrow May, Hammond and Boris all going. A PM, Fgn Sec and Chancellor in one hit. That's serious diplomatic love. /3
Read 16 tweets
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#London - Explosion reported @ #ParsonsGreen underground station.
#UK #London - No service btw Earls Court to Wimbledon. Buses, South Western and London Overground accepting tickets via any reasonable route
#UK #London - Explosion (in or of a bucket) reportedly happened near the rear of the train. (Pic Andy Webb)
Read 58 tweets

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