So we've established that there's lots we don't know about the coming weeks, but what do we know?
1/
1/
Firstly, we know the elements the gvt is committed to to approve the WA/PD:
- 'meaningful vote' motion
- Withdrawal Bill
- CRAG laying before Plt
2/
- 'meaningful vote' motion
- Withdrawal Bill
- CRAG laying before Plt
2/
Second, we know the EU is waiting on the UK before it moves on ratification
Dec #EUCO (13-14/12) will be first checkpoint (as May will outline options)
3/
Dec #EUCO (13-14/12) will be first checkpoint (as May will outline options)
3/
Third, we know the ratification deadline is still 29 March 2019 and that can only change by unanimity of EU27 & UK
4/
4/
Fourth, we know the default outcome of this is still no-deal, which can only be averted by an active decision of the parties
5/
5/
Fifth, we know the FTPA protect the gvt from early elections unless there are CON/DUP defections in a motion of no confidence, which is not automatically linked to defeat on any part of ratification
6/
6/
None of these elements is going to change during the next 4 months, so when pondering options/outcomes it's worth keeping them in mind
Even if they still leave a very wide field of action
/end
Even if they still leave a very wide field of action
/end
