Thread by @Raphael_Hogarth

Lots of news sites leading on @theresa_May's claim, in interview w @bbcnickrobinson, that MPs' vote on the Brexit deal will be a choice between what she has negotiated, and no deal at all. But as @instituteforgov has argued, the reality is more complex. 1/
bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…

Ofc, the PM is right that the legal defaults are set to no deal. The UK is scheduled to leave the EU on 29 March 2019. This does not automatically change if the UK and the EU fail to agree a deal, nor does it automatically change if Parliament declines to approve the deal. 2/

But, if Parliament wants to express a view beyond ‘yes or no’, it will be able to. For a start, MPs will be able to amend the motion to approve the government's deal. More explanation of this here. 3/
instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/v…

Of course, if MPs voted to amend the motion approving the deal, that would *not* amount to amending the deal itself. Negotiating and signing international agreements is a matter for the government. 4/

But, MPs could amend the motion to put conditions on their approval of the deal, or to direct the government to try to renegotiate aspects of the deal. Maybe the government would just ignore any such directions. If it wanted to survive, though, I suspect it wouldn't.
5/

In my view, the EU would be unlikely to reopen the withdrawal agreement: the terms of the standstill transition period, the agreement on citizens’ rights, the financial settlement between the UK and the EU, or the “backstop” provisions that guarantee a soft border in Ireland. 6/

I suspect that the EU would be more open to tweaking the “political declaration” on future UK-EU relations, *if* there were a clear majority in the House of Commons for an off-the-shelf model like a Canada-style free trade agreement, or Norway-style single market membership. 7/

And, EU leaders have said that UK can change its mind re Brexit at any point until 29 March. If Parlt did produce a majority for another referendum, think it's likely the EU would grant an extension to the Article 50 period, in order to give the UK time to hold such a vote. 8/

(Please don't tell me I'm saying that a referendum is a good or bad idea. I'm saying that I reckon the EU would give time for one, if Parliament directed the government to hold one.) 9/

Also worth noting that the "meaningful vote" is not the only possible hitch in the timetable. Two other key risks for HMG, which we set out in our report. 10/ instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/…

First, the Government will also need to pass the EU (Withdrawal Agreement) Bill, which will give effect to the withdrawal agreement in domestic law, before the UK can ratify the withdrawal agreement. White paper here 11/
gov.uk/government/pub…

Second, HMG *could* face further votes on motions tabled by the Opposition. There is precedent. Though MPs passed a motion approving the decision to join EC in 1971, the Opposition tabled another in Jan 1972, calling on HMG not to sign the treaty of accession. (It failed.) 12/

There are ofc risks to the timetable on EU side too. The deal could get held up in the European Parliament, and there's a chance it could be referred to ECJ for a ruling on its legality. But if there's a political consensus behind the deal, neither is rly expected to happen. 13/

Back on the meaningful vote: a real worry is that there could be a Faustian pact between between different factions in the House of Commons, all opposing the Government’s Brexit deal for different reasons. 14/

If some MPs voted against the deal because they wanted a new political declaration signalling a softer Brexit, others because they wanted a harder one, and others because they wanted to hold another ref, there would be a majority against everything and a majority for nothing. 15/

In this case, the legal defaults would kick in and there could be a ‘no deal’ by accident. So, I think MPs who do oppose HMG's deal could would do better to amend the motion than to vote against it, thereby expressing a view on the outcome they *do* want. 16/

Of course, they might not get it. But it's wrong to say, as @theresa_may does, that MPs (from @Jacob_Rees_Mogg and @SteveBakerHW to @JustineGreening and @Anna_Soubry!) have only a yes-or-no choice. They have more levers to pull than that. More below. 17/17
instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/v…