Thread by @JoshuaBHoe

Thread:

An easy breakdown of why Tom Cotton is not only WRONG but Dangerously WRONG on the #FirstStepAct

1. The act is modeled after state reform that reduced recidivism. IE He is PREVENTING a bill that REDUCES crime and INCREASES public safety pewtrusts.org/en/research-an…

2. Mr. Cotton likes to use scare-tactics, he says the #FirstStepAct will let "SCARY PEOPLE OUT"

But, these people will GET OUT ANYWAY, the question is HOW not IF they will return. Mr. Cotton is supporting "scary people" returning With NO programming nationalreview.com/2018/11/the-tr…

3. In fact, for the people Mr. Cotton likes to fear-monger the most - remaining in prison WITHOUT PROGRAMMING is an INCUBATOR for RECIDIVISM. Again, Mr. Cotton is arguing, in essence, for MORE crime not less when he opposes the #FirstStepAct on these grounds

4. In fact, there is NO evidence suggesting that the difference between the reduced time and longer sentence results in ANY public safety benefits. So, there is ONLY a risk Mr. Cotton's arguments MAKE FOR MORE CRIME #FirstStepAct pewtrusts.org/en/research-an…

5. Despite this fact, the reductions are still very MODEST but the public safety benefits of programming - as the result of the #FirstStepAct - could be GREAT nationalreview.com/2018/11/the-tr…

6. So, what Mr. Cotton proposes (maintaining longer sentences), evidence suggests, makes people MORE not LESS dangerous, especially in the realm of drug enforcement - and this is from the former Attorney General of Virginia #FirstStepAct spectator.org/three-myths-fr…

7. For all these categories the same is true, lots of evidence incapacitation, particularly LONG incapacitation has poor public safety outcomes, in fact, this is what one of the largest meta-analysis done on the topic by @davidroodman found #FirstStepAct openphilanthropy.org/files/Focus_Ar…

8. And there is more, as I suggested before the research of @davidroodman suggests that there is NO marginal utility of Mr. Cotton's approach...This should matter to EVERYONE who cares about public safety #FirstStepAct openphilanthropy.org/files/Focus_Ar…

9. And that last evidence highlights a particularly unfortunate trick Mr. Cottton keeps playing, the #FirstStepAct does not result in early release, it results in early release UNDER SUPERVISION which as @davidroodman notes adds ZERO to the crime rate

10. EVERY SINGLE TIME Tom Cotton calls for a "carve-out" or for people to be excluded - he is actually calling for MORE DANGER to society, release without programming is MORE dangerous than early release with programming #FirstStepAct

Listening? @SenMikeLee @senatemajldr @marcorubio @SenJohnKennedy

#FirstStepAct and also my friends scroll up 👆👆👆@ACLU @ACUFforJustice @NAACP @RightOnCrime @USJusticeAction @cut_50 @VanJones68 @tolmanbrett @shonhopwood @FreedomWorks

11. Mr. Cotton might respond that programming will still be available for other people incarcerated in federal prisons but the whole reason time-based INCENTIVES are included is because they are the best way to ensure people sign-up for programming.

12. It might be exciting to, for instance, find out you get some commissary benefits (a few packs of Ramen Noodles) until you find out your bunky is getting time reductions to his or her sentence.

13. This was in fact, the entire premise at the core of the First Step Act: #FirstStepAct equaljusticeunderlaw.org/thejusticerepo…

14. This incentive structure is, in fact, WHY so many Law Enforcement Organizations support the bill #FirstStepAct @FreedomPartners @CKinstitute @Koch_Industries freedompartners.org/latest-news/am…

So, every single time @TomCottonAR says "dangerous" or "DOJ says" remember:

Release without programming is MORE dangerous than early release with programming (and remember it is early release to supervision, the entire sentence is still carried out)

And let us not forget that @TomCotton already showed his opposition to be fraudulent, he supports full Mens Rea requirements for ALL crimes, which - because Fentanyl is usually added upstream - generally means downward sentencing for most dealers...probably MORE than FSA

Finally, we need to ask a question other conservatives have asked, is this real opposition, or something else? Because this opposition seems beyond evidence, beyond fact, beyond conservatism (and this is from a conservative)

Okay, one more since a conservative I respect just put out a new article, I am not the ONLY person saying this...heck, I am a liberal, but lots of Conservatives agree that Tom Cotton is making things WORSE for safety #FirstStepAct dailycaller.com/2018/11/28/tom…

Pretty sure @avgjoele and I were eating the same breakfast this morning, he also seems to conclude that Tom Cotton's endgame is to make everyone less safe #FirstStepAct #cjreform dailycaller.com/2018/11/28/tom…