(Graph Thread of the Day; 1/n) Using data from the general social survey, I previously shared a graph showing a negative relationship between social trust and increased ethnic diversity.
2/n Utilizing data from the migration policy institute +ANES, I find that percent change in the size of a state's foreign-born population between 2000-2016 also significantly negatively predicts social trust. 
3/n Importantly, and as shown, these effects obtain even after controlling for openness, political orientation, SES and other demographic variables.
4/n Holding the latter at their median values, moving from min to max % growth lowers the probability of expressing a high degree of trust by 25% (48.8%-->36.5%).
5/n Although the drop is slightly steeper among Whites, non-Whites experience lower social trust as well
6/n These results suggest that the growth rate of a state's foreign-born pop--rather than its absolute size (a variable which proved insignificant in a separate analysis)--may be more important as a predictor of social attitudes.
7/n Remarkably, the growth in the foreign porn pop. predicts stronger anti-immigration attitudes net of the effects of racial resentment, national-level economic pessimism, personal financial difficulty, openness, and political/demographic indicators
8/n What is more, a test of a two-way % growth x political orientation interaction reveals that the effects of the former are actually *strongest* at the liberal end of the latter.
9/n In other words, it appears that the expression of anti-immig sentiment among liberals is actually *more* responsive to foreign born pop. growth than it is for conservatives. Given the counter-intuitive nature of this finding, I'll remain skeptical until I can replicate...
10/n on other datasets. That's it for now :)
@epkaufm I'm thinking this is an artifact. What you say?
11/n: One more thing: The effects of the foreign born *share* of a state's population (circa 2016) on anti-immigration sentiment is significantly *negative* at the liberal/democrat end of the political orientation scale.
12/n This raises a few (or more) possibilities: 1) libs who like (or at least don't mind) diversity selectively-migrate to states with large foreign-born pops.; 2) libs who live in states with large fb pops are more acclimated (perhaps due to exposure/contact) to ethnic diversity
13/n Consistent with the findings here, some previous research actually shows that it's the speed at which immigrants arrive--rather than their pop. proportion--that elicits anti-immigration sentiments onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.111…
