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Tim Durrant @timd_IFG
, 10 tweets, 6 min read Read on Twitter
When all the #Brexit chat is about parliamentary shenanigans it’s easy to forget that these decisions will have real-world impacts, including a potential #nodeal… here’s a quick look at where #nodeal planning currently stands:
1. First the good news: the Government has struck agreements with the USA, Canada and 8 other countries to ensure flights can continue even in the case of no deal (nothing yet on flights to/from/within EU countries though)

gov.uk/government/new…
2. And the Government’s lottery for road haulage permits has opened – so if you’re a haulage company that wants to transport goods across the EU after a #nodeal Brexit, get your application in now for a 5% chance of securing a permit (h/t @RHANews)

gov.uk/guidance/ecmt-…
3. But there’s bad news too: the competition watchdog, the CMA, has said formally it won’t be fully ready to take on all its new responsibilities and carry on with the day job in March next year if we leave with #nodeal:

ft.com/content/2c4208…
4. And the Government is considering how best to ration space on ferries coming into Dover to make sure that critical supply chains are maintained – meaning Spanish and Dutch vegetables may not reach our shelves:

ft.com/content/9e3bda…
5. This raises the point that it’s business that are on the front line of managing no deal – as Toyota told @r4today this morning, factories rely on the free flow of goods that would be frustrated by a #nodeal exit
6. So we’re still not out of the #nodeal woods: the PM said yesterday that Govt departments will get more money for no deal planning in the next few days– an attempt to put pressure on MPs to support its deal?
7. For more on what the Government needs to do to be ready for #nodeal, take a look at our explainer:

instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/no-…
8. And here’s where some other EU countries are on their #nodeal prep:

instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/oth…

/ENDS
PS - HMRC have been in touch again with companies who trade only with the EU to tell them what they need to do to be ready for #nodeal. Problem is, there are around 100k businesses who HMRC think may face issues but don't know who they are...

gov.uk/government/pub…
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More from @timd_IFG see all

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So the next (and still not final?!) set of #nodeal notices is out. @instituteforgov will of course be diving into the detail so you don't have to - but that's a job for next week

First, here's a thread of some interesting things we've spotted from a quick scan of today's papers:
1 - first up, a line on the #CustomsUnion in the note on exporting mercury - clarification for worried backbenchers?
2 - no deal means no preferential access to the EU market, or to other markets where we currently have access via an EU free trade deal - unless the Govt can roll over those deals before next March. AFAIK, no confirmation that any have been rolled over yet
Read 13 tweets
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A few thoughts on today's #nodeal notices - as others have said, these are some of the really juicy ones...

gov.uk/government/col…

(1/8)
This is the first time, AFAIK, that the Government has accepted in such stark terms that no deal will mean:

- disruption to supply chains
- potential for no flights or bus services between UK and EU, and between UK and other countries (including flights to US)

(2/8)
- extra red tape, as businesses have to re-register their products/services in an EU country
- real problems at the border, particularly around Dover/Calais
- hassle for individuals (pet passports, motor insurance)

(3/8)
Read 8 tweets
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Few thoughts on the #ERG proposals for the Irish border, an issue @awstojanovic and I wrote about back in June: instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/i…

The paper stresses that the ERG support the principle of no hard border, which will be welcome to all sides

(1)
Also says that customs checks won't be a problem - which is true if the Govt can swing the Facilitated Customs Arrangement, which both the EU and the ERG have problems with...

(2)
The paper points to an EU report, Smart Borders 2.0, as providing solutions to the customs questions. However, that report a) doesn't solve the problem and b) isn't an EU report (it was commissioned by the Parliament, it doesn't represent an EU proposal)

(3)
Read 7 tweets

Related threads

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1. The Rolls Royce story this morning was instructive. They are moving their design approvals work to Germany. They say it won't involve that many job losses - but that's only really the tip of the iceberg for the sector...

#Brexit thread
2. Passenger aircraft go through a series of maintenance checks at depots in the UK. There are deep inspections and none of this can be done without authorisations and certifications. That's the sort of services trade in danger by leaving the EEA. and especially so with no deal
3. Then, if one of these inspections finds a patch of corrosion in the wing, that section of rib or stringer has to be cut out and replaced. A designer has to come up with a solution that not only fits, but also can withstand the stress.
Read 18 tweets
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The #brexit debate has always been an exercise in denial and wishful thinking.

Now cabinet urges May to delay vote to “plead” (FT) with Brussels. Delusion.

Do Brexiteers hate this deal? Or actually just hate the choices Brexit presents? In the real world. 1/
There needs to be a vote, as the next step to making choices.

Otherwise I just keep having to listen to people like Michael Howard in the Radio saying let’s pay for a “no deal” and spend the year’s grace “negotiating a Canada style trade deal”. A year!!!! /2
The #brexit illusions have insulted our collective intelligence for long enough.

There needs to be a vote. Then choices.

Boot out @theresa_may sure. Then who? And for what?

She’s useless, to be sure. But how ironic that the queen of unicorns get shot for not finding any! /3
Read 7 tweets
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After the threads from @conspirator0 and @propornot re: @propornotapp (now suspended), decided to look for any interesting breadcrumbs they may have left behind. Wound up learning about #Nationalist parties of Bulgaria and a few other tidbits. #osint #bots #disinformation
First thing that turned up was this article from the site newsbeezer(.)com (site title: Bulgaria Evening News). As you can see in the screenshot, @PropOrNotApp is quoted discussing conditions during fires in neighboring Greece. Sure, why not?
What else is on this site? Well, they appear to be big fans of the National Front for the Salvation of Bulgaria, normally abbreviated to NFSB, though oddly they seem to alternate the abbreviation between NFFS and NPSB. Neither appear affiliated with another political party.
Read 17 tweets
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So, as you may have seen, the @UKandEU report on a #NoDeal Brexit is out today. ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/upl… And whilst, obvs, most of you are already immersed in it, thought I'd attempt q quick summary for the lazy people (1)
We try to explain what No Deal means. There is a tendency to elide it with 'trading on WTO terms'. Which, of course, would be possible with a withdrawal agreement. We also make clear the crucial point that, unlike with most 'deals.' default outcome is not the status quo. (2)
We deliberately pick the worst case. Where we leave with no deal at all. Which, as we point out, we do not think is by any manner of means the most likely outcome. That being said, however, we argue that, in the event of a no deal, mitigations will be hard (3)
Read 25 tweets
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We’re (10 UK small scale fishermen) here @FishmongersHall at the #FishingInTransition @TheJerryPercy @CreelScff @Bluemarinef @AdrianGahan @SamuelMarcLowe @CER_Grant @CRHClover @Bluemarinef @law_rich @Erin_Priddle @NFFO_UK @SWFPA
We’re here to hear what are the real deal prospects & real world impacts for all UK #FisheriesInTransition rather than any political or media spin about it.
EU official told him early on in #Brexit negotiations, “You [UK] have no cards, except fish.”
Read 100 tweets
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1. Worst national leadership in my lifetime forcing through the most damaging, misguided & missold policy I can remember. Ideology & vested self interest replace statesmanship, soundbites replace sound judgement & autocracy subverts democracy.
#Brexit harms us irreparably #FBPE
2. A flawed Leave campaign based on lies, deceit, disingenuity & over simplification & a #Remain one fought w/o any positivity from the Govt & no real commitment from Labour, whose leader was virtually AWOL, did no justice to #Brexit complexity & betrayed our democratic process.
3. A mere 37% of voters/26.5% of the Ppl voted leave in a legally Non-Binding test of public opinion which has been corrupted, on the basis of an illegitimate political promise & interpreted as being the irrefutable Will of the Ppl.
The 1st is insufficient to claim the latter!
Read 39 tweets

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