1. To impeach or not to impeach? That is the question. It just got a lot more real with the new determination that Trump directed Cohen to commit a crime.
2. Let's step back. Impeachment is a two-headed beast. It's both a legal process and a political process. The question is what dominates: the legal imperative of justice or the political pragmatics of what is possible.
3. Let's stipulate (as I think is reasonable) that Trump has committed impeachable offenses. If we see this as a legal process, then Congress has a constitutional duty to start the process, whatever the odds. Justice demands no less.
4. But what if we see impeachment as a political process. Then it becomes more complicated. Because then the reality is that even if Trump has committed impeachable offenses, it's not certain that you can get 67 Senators (i.e. at least 20 Republicans) on board.
5. The political reality is that right now there are probably enough votes in the House to impeach but not enough votes in the Senate to remove. So what is impeachment without removal? A largely symbolic gesture.
6. In fact I think the political reality is that its virtually impossible to imagine 20 GOP senators voting to remove. Trump could hand Alaska back to Russia and he'd only lose 4 or 5 Senators (2 from Alaska).
7. So: Politics is in command. Impeachment without removal is only of symbolic value -- and dubious value at that. If the goal is removal, then the best path forward remains elections. In the meantime Dem congress can continue to investigate.
8. It's true that even a symbolic impeachment has value. But that goal -- the airing of offenses in order to make Trump & his enablers politically toxic -- can be achieved with house hearings short of impeachment.
9. Again, I agree with the goal here, but it can be achieved with hearings short of impeachment.
10. To argue with myself a bit: the course I'm advocating (House hearings short of impeachment unless there is huge evidence) carries a real risk. For if Trump is guilty of impeachable offenses & not impeached then his crimes have been normalized.
11. We're in a very murky place, with no clear answers and should be ready to change our minds. But for now, I think its best to think politically and keep our eyes on the prize. The goal is getting Trump out of office. 2020 is not too far away.
