1/
Long thread examining Musk’s statements regarding The Boring Company (TBC) & how they *might* shape our view of his statements regarding Tesla. Musk has an arrogant habit of coming to new industries & simply asking, “Why don’t you just do it better?”
$tslaq @Trumpery45
Long thread examining Musk’s statements regarding The Boring Company (TBC) & how they *might* shape our view of his statements regarding Tesla. Musk has an arrogant habit of coming to new industries & simply asking, “Why don’t you just do it better?”
$tslaq @Trumpery45
2/ Part 1: Tunnels under LA
Musk wants to build a system of tunnels as deep as 40-100 levels down (he has used both numbers interchangeably over time). Even if we give a pass that this is technically possible to do, it will never be economically feasible. The cost to build
Musk wants to build a system of tunnels as deep as 40-100 levels down (he has used both numbers interchangeably over time). Even if we give a pass that this is technically possible to do, it will never be economically feasible. The cost to build
3/ Pt 1 Cont:
traditional tunnels is $1b per mile, at traditional tunnel depths. Musk says he will lower the cost by a factor of 10x to make this achievable. For one, he has arbitrarily made this statement. Second, he claims he’ll do it with a new cutting head which he has yet
traditional tunnels is $1b per mile, at traditional tunnel depths. Musk says he will lower the cost by a factor of 10x to make this achievable. For one, he has arbitrarily made this statement. Second, he claims he’ll do it with a new cutting head which he has yet
4/ Pt 1 Cont:
to design (he can’t). Third, improvements of 10x simply *do not happen* in the infrastructure industry (slow/incrementally) & every other tunneling company has a vested interest in building tunnels as cheaply & efficiently as possible. It’s not as if they aren’t
to design (he can’t). Third, improvements of 10x simply *do not happen* in the infrastructure industry (slow/incrementally) & every other tunneling company has a vested interest in building tunnels as cheaply & efficiently as possible. It’s not as if they aren’t
5/ Pt 1 Cont:
trying to make improvements & Musk (a novice) will outsmart them. Ignoring whether it is even technically possible to do, the idea of creating a system of tunnels 100 levels deep that doesn’t bankrupt the city or the company that builds them is ludicrous.
trying to make improvements & Musk (a novice) will outsmart them. Ignoring whether it is even technically possible to do, the idea of creating a system of tunnels 100 levels deep that doesn’t bankrupt the city or the company that builds them is ludicrous.
6/ Part 2: Garage Elevators
Musk wants to build elevators in garages around LA that connect to his system of tunnels. Is this technically possible to do? Yes, of course. Is it practical in any stretch of the imagination? No. He is talking about building an elevator that can lift
Musk wants to build elevators in garages around LA that connect to his system of tunnels. Is this technically possible to do? Yes, of course. Is it practical in any stretch of the imagination? No. He is talking about building an elevator that can lift
7/ Pt 2 Cont:
a 4k lb vehicle down a 40-foot shaft. The cost of moving the earth alone (not even finished the tunnel itself including concrete, hydraulics, electronics, etc) would exceed $10k per elevator. How many times would a person in that house need to use that elevator
a 4k lb vehicle down a 40-foot shaft. The cost of moving the earth alone (not even finished the tunnel itself including concrete, hydraulics, electronics, etc) would exceed $10k per elevator. How many times would a person in that house need to use that elevator
8/ Pt 2 Cont:
(and at what cost) to justify the expense of building that elevator? TBC would need to find truly miraculous ways to reduce the cost of BASIC construction in order for this to ever become possible from a business standpoint. Moving dirt. Pouring concrete. Etc.
(and at what cost) to justify the expense of building that elevator? TBC would need to find truly miraculous ways to reduce the cost of BASIC construction in order for this to ever become possible from a business standpoint. Moving dirt. Pouring concrete. Etc.
9/ Pt 2 Cont:
The industry has squeezed out so much waste from these operations already that you simply can’t get large enough order of magnitude improvements to bring the costs into feasible ranges.
The industry has squeezed out so much waste from these operations already that you simply can’t get large enough order of magnitude improvements to bring the costs into feasible ranges.
10/ Part 3: Thousands of Stations in LA Tunnels
Musk wants to build 10k (direct quote) stations to his future LA tunnel system. Again this lacks any practical perspective. The cost to acquire the land, permit, dig, construct, & maintain this number of stations is astronomical.
Musk wants to build 10k (direct quote) stations to his future LA tunnel system. Again this lacks any practical perspective. The cost to acquire the land, permit, dig, construct, & maintain this number of stations is astronomical.
11/ Pt 3 Cont:
The current system where people travel to one of several stations makes sense financially because in order to recoup the cost of the station (construction & maintenance) you have to be passing through hundreds of thousands of passengers (recoup cost through ticket
The current system where people travel to one of several stations makes sense financially because in order to recoup the cost of the station (construction & maintenance) you have to be passing through hundreds of thousands of passengers (recoup cost through ticket
12/ Pt 3 Cont:
fees). So you have large capex for the station that is recouped via ticket sales. Now Musk wants to go from having 50 stations to 10,000 stations. The number of passengers *may* see some increase from the added convenience, but you now have 200x the cost of
fees). So you have large capex for the station that is recouped via ticket sales. Now Musk wants to go from having 50 stations to 10,000 stations. The number of passengers *may* see some increase from the added convenience, but you now have 200x the cost of
13/ Pt 3 Cont:
construction & maintenance for those stations. The economics of running a system like this aren't there. I get the dream of having stations all over the place that add convenience. But cities have budgets. They have to operate based off of what is sustainable.
construction & maintenance for those stations. The economics of running a system like this aren't there. I get the dream of having stations all over the place that add convenience. But cities have budgets. They have to operate based off of what is sustainable.
14/ Conclusion:
This is not a case where “if we just keep pushing the boundaries then these things are possible”. BASIC engineering calculations can show that these projects cannot become reality. Not because they aren’t technically possible, but because they lack any viable and
This is not a case where “if we just keep pushing the boundaries then these things are possible”. BASIC engineering calculations can show that these projects cannot become reality. Not because they aren’t technically possible, but because they lack any viable and
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sustainable business case. And the cost-cutting measures that would need to occur to make a viable business case are objectively not possible. There is a LONG history of ideas that are technically possible to achieve but don’t have viable business cases associated with them.
sustainable business case. And the cost-cutting measures that would need to occur to make a viable business case are objectively not possible. There is a LONG history of ideas that are technically possible to achieve but don’t have viable business cases associated with them.
16/
These ideas always die. Now if Musk is willing to make these statements regarding TBC, why should anyone believe he’s applying any different thought process towards his statements regarding Tesla or SpaceX.
These ideas always die. Now if Musk is willing to make these statements regarding TBC, why should anyone believe he’s applying any different thought process towards his statements regarding Tesla or SpaceX.
17/
Both companies have multiple ongoing projects which are equally as ludicrous as the project at TBC, albeit for different reasons. Musk is a dreamer, which I can admire. But dreaming and engineering are two different things, and Musk is not an engineer.
Both companies have multiple ongoing projects which are equally as ludicrous as the project at TBC, albeit for different reasons. Musk is a dreamer, which I can admire. But dreaming and engineering are two different things, and Musk is not an engineer.
