A #cdnpoli thread on this is in order as it has both GHG & economic implications: this disconnect between stated #climatechange goals (limit warming to 1.5 degrees) & fossil fuel development planning is a recipe for continued conflict. 1/
On the one hand, Suncor says it supports the Paris Agreement—which focuses on limiting warming to 2 degrees (or even better, 1.5 degrees). sustainability.suncor.com/en/climate-cha… On the other, they anticipate future oil demand consistent with 2.7 degrees of warming. 2/ 
Helpfully, the IEA also models a “Sustainable Development Scenario” that’s consistent with the Paris Agreement objectives. The difference in emissions is stark. 3/
As is the the difference in oil demand—to the tune of a 32 million barrel per day decrease in oil demand by 2040, relative to the figure Suncor cites (New Policies Scenario). 4/
A future consistent with limiting #climatechange per the Paris Agreement—adopted by Canada, supported by Suncor—has a fundamentally different narrative for future oil demand: steady decline, with a peak in oil demand in just a few short years. 5/
So what would that future mean for Suncor? For Canada?
A future of declining oil demand brings with it falling oil prices.
The oil price in the scenario Suncor promotes is $111 in 2040. In the Sustainable Development Scenario it’s just $64.
Can Cdn oil compete in that future? 6/
A future of declining oil demand brings with it falling oil prices.
The oil price in the scenario Suncor promotes is $111 in 2040. In the Sustainable Development Scenario it’s just $64.
Can Cdn oil compete in that future? 6/
The Canadian oil industry is making progress in cutting production costs. But every co. elsewhere is similarly focused on cutting costs.
Is it possible CDN oil can still compete? Maybe.
How much should we bank on it? That’s a big Q for investors. Albertans & other Cdns alike. 7/
Is it possible CDN oil can still compete? Maybe.
How much should we bank on it? That’s a big Q for investors. Albertans & other Cdns alike. 7/
While we hear about the need to diversify the Albertan & Canadian economies to be less reliant upon oil production (an aside: they are already more diverse than commonly understood), I’ve seen little discussion in Canada about the evolution of Canada’s big oil & gas co’s. 8/
Wood Mackenzie has been tracking the evolution of global oil majors into renewable energy, greentechmedia.com/articles/read/… ditto CDP cdp.net/en/articles/in… — there’s a contrast between European & American companies, with the latter lagging behind. 9/
See this thread from a few months back, with a great graphic from @BloombergNEF on oil company moves into electricity (not just renewables, but EV infrastructure too). 10/
Ultimately this comes down to how oil companies and our political leaders communicate with Canadians about future global oil demand in a climate-safe future. To date the narrative has been about continued growth in demand, ignoring climate commitments. This needs to change. /11
So good on @smccarthy55 for flagging this—we need journalists covering energy & politics to consistently ask biz & political leaders how to square the circle of their climate commitments & expectations for global oil demand, & how they factor it into investment & policy. 12/12
