1: Since there's been some enthusiasm for encouraging an oppositional choice between the US and China, i.e., Country X or Y should "choose," we may apparently get an interesting empirical test with Bolsonaro ...
2: These lines jumped out at me: "The Brazilian president-elect and his inner circle believe that the US can be trusted to offset any losses involved in their pivot away from China." ...
3: "To counterbalance Brazil’s losses from a confrontation with China would require major US concessions on trade and investment ... "
4: "If anything can draw American attention at this stage, Mr Bolsonaro reasons, it is China" ...
5: "In exchange for tilting Brazil in the direction of the US, he wants concessions from the White House ... "
6: Over the last few years, we have heard stark language from US officials warning countries off deepened investment/trade relationships with China while presenting the US as the superior partner. If/when they test that proposition, as some now might, the US, too, will be tested.
7: Putting Brazil aside, I suspect the smartest leaders around the world will try to maximize their leverage with one by playing leverage games with the other. They will play them off again each other to foster a balance that maximizes their independence, leverage, and benefits.
8: That will be interesting to watch case-by-case. But it will test both Washington and Beijing when governments challenge them to prove that they are the "better" partner. That kind of competitive dynamic could be beneficial by creating options -- or highly debilitating.
9: But anyway, it will force some real policy choices from the US since talk is cheap. It's not all that hard to critique bad Chinese practices. It's harder to step into the breach. Governments could make this easy for Washington ... but I'll bet plenty of them don't.
