1/ Some thoughts on politics of government shutdown & how these sorts of deadlocks have been resolved in the past. Do past patterns apply to Trump? Not entirely clear. But dynamics of past stalemates should still be helpful in thinking through how the impasse might be resolved.
2/ In a polarized and partisan era, avoiding blame is key to propelling parties to the bargaining table. Parties are less interested in the benefits of "getting to yes." They are more often compelled by the costs of continuing to say "no."
3/ Question is how do the parties view the consequences of keeping government shut down? If/when impact is deemed politically unacceptable, anticipation or fear of being blamed typically drives partisans to the bargaining table.
4/ How much does the popularity of the issue over which government funding is held hostage matter (i.e. in this case, $ for the border wall)? I'm not sure. That issue might be less important than optics of government shutdown itself. (Think of 2013 stalemate over funding ACA.)
5/ Note: In 2013, Senate GOP proved more electorally vulnerable than their House colleagues to polling that showed the public was more likely to blame GOP than Dems for the shutdown. No surprise senators from purple'ish states then helped to spark a deal.
6/ How does blame game play out? Blame avoidance leads polarized parties to fight a messaging war. Who wins the messaging battle? Conjure up some E.E. Schattschneider! "Watch the crowd, because the crowd plays the decisive role." The public and reactions to optics will be key.
7/ Why does messaging battle matter? Outcome of the messaging war shapes each party's power at the bargaining table. If you think you are on the right side of public opinion on an issue, you hold the upper hand in setting terms of deal-- and thus less need to make concessions.
8/ Again 2013: Sen Dems largely held their ground (backed by Obama) in negotiations w GOP (even though they needed 60 votes). Dems got clean spending bills & split difference w/ GOP on timing of debt ceiling lift. They prevailed because public largely blamed GOP for shutdown.
9/ Of course even if a party realizes it will lose the messaging war, leaders rarely throw in towel before 11th hour under pressure from partisans at home (or Oval Office). Divisions within party typically end brinkmanship. Q is how long Trump holds out.
10/ What's this mean for today? Optics & public response to govt shutdown (over a border wall) key to who wins the messaging war. Dems have easier position: border wall not that popular nationally and not at all with their base. So Dems will surely stay unified not to concede.
11/ I could be very wrong...but seems likely that as shutdown continues and consequences become more apparent to public that Senate GOP begin to buckle. Trump also can take kick-the-can (🦵-🥫) option Dems will offer: open up govt but buck final decision on DHS $$ till Feb.
12/ How long will Trump hold out? His track record on maintaining positions ("You can blame me for the shutdown" --> "It's the Democrats' fault") is not great. Senate GOP (& rest of Washington) know that. And he often claims wall is being built even tho Cong refuses to fund.
